The Domino Theory and Brexit

For those of you old enough to remember, the Domino Theory was one of the reasons that we ended up in the quagmire of Vietnam.  The theory basically was that if Vietnam fell, then all the surrounding countries in Southeast Asia would also soon fall to the Communists, like dominoes. And I guess what I am proposing when it comes to the British voting to exit the European Union, Brexit as it is called, is that it will be the first domino to fall.  The referendum is up for a vote on June 23, a little over a month away, and the current polling is pretty much all over the place – Reuters shows “stay” up by 15 points while others show the vote neck and neck. The debate has split the Conservative party wide open, with former London Mayor Boris Johnson, a future PM hopeful, leading the “leave” faction and current PM David Cameron heading the “stay” camp. But for the purposes of this post, let’s assume the “leave” vote prevails and the UK ends up leaving the EU. 

In 2014, Scotland held a referendum on independence from the United Kingdom which lost by a 10 point margin, 55%-45%.  The referendum was really a launch pad for the Scottish National Party (SNP) which, in less than a decade, has managed to displace Labor as the dominant force in Scottish politics. In an ironic twist, one of the arguments made against Scottish independence was that the country would lose its membership in the EU.  Scottish support for the EU is higher than the rest of the UK and the SNP has said that it would put forward a second referendum on independence if the UK voted to leave. Scotland has long felt they were the forgotten stepchild when it comes to policies made in London and now the country no longer has a strong voice in either the Labor or Conservative parties that make up the majority of Parliament.  In addition, Scotland’s economy has come under pressure as the price of oil has fallen through the floor.  Any vote for independence today would be quite close and the traditional powers of Labor and Conservatives that both opposed Scottish devolution would have less influence.

Northern Ireland also presents some potential problems if the UK leaves the EU.  Again, the country is much more pro-Europe than the rest of England and the EU is Northern Ireland’s largest trading partner, much of it with Ireland.  In theory, a border would have to be maintained between Ireland and Northern Ireland, restricting the flow of trade and people between those two countries. The creation of  that border would be seen as essentially a British decision and could lead to increased calls for reunification with Ireland in order to stay in the EU, adding another layer of resentment to the country’s long internal struggle.

Finally, the departure of the UK from the EU will essentially break the taboo associated with an exit. It will not be long before you hear Eurosceptics in Greece, France, Spain and elsewhere point to the UK as an example of what could be done. In Finland, Parliament is scheduled to debate leaving the Euro this year and similar debates are in the offing in Denmark and Austria. And there is no telling what would happen when a far right party gets control of government in one of the eastern bloc member states. But you have to feel, eventually, one country will vote to leave and then the floodgates would really be open.

None of these events would happen instantly – it would be a long, difficult process in uncharted waters for any of these countries.  As opposed to the EU, leaving or, for that matter, joining the Euro is an especially complex, arduous, and disruptive task with no certainty of the result. But the door would certainly be open if they chose to take it. Now, I happen to believe that the “stay” camp will eke out a victory and all this speculation will be for naught.  Cameron has managed to lead a charmed political life, squeaking through when he has too.  But, either way, the Brexit question will be a win/win for the Conservative point of view in England. If they leave, the more nativist Conservatives will take over; and if they stay, the UK economy will contract again and Cameron’s Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne can use that excuse to continue his push for increased privatization and his attack on the social safety net in Britain.  But, if the UK leaves and the dominoes fall, David Cameron may well be remembered as the man responsible for the dissolution of the UK and the break-up the European Union.