Democrats Outflank Trump, GOP Again

If the reports are true, the deal to avert another government shutdown at the end of this week looks like another instance of Democrats imposing their will on Trump and the GOP. The reported deal gives Trump a paltry $1.375 billion for 55 miles of fencing and reduces the number of people that ICE can detain to around 40,000.

By providing at least some funding for border fencing, Pelosi and the Dems will force Trump to accept the deal while of course claiming that he is actually getting the wall built. Despite that bluster, Trump will look both weak and ineffective for having to take such a pathetic deal and his rhetoric will ring even more hollow, especially among his core supporters. Not taking the deal would mean that he alone would be responsible for another shutdown and congressional Republicans won’t provide cover for him this time.

Conservatives will savage this deal and Trump for accepting it. Hannity has already raged, “On this so-called compromise, I’m getting details. 1.3 billion and not even a wall or barrier… Any Republican that supports this garbage compromise, you will have to explain.” In response, the current thinking is that this humiliating defeat will force Trump to opt for the national security declaration, as I predicted in early January, which will immediately be tied up in legal proceedings, further highlighting his weakness and ineffectiveness.

The only positive for Trump, and it is a small one, is that he can keep raging about immigration and the wall in order to rouse his base for 2020. But the longer the wall goes without being built, the harder it will be for even his core supporters to believe that Trump is actually the guy who will get it done.

In summary, this deal is another huge win for Pelosi and the Democrats and it will make Trump look weak and ineffective to his base. More importantly, it will accomplish this while keeping the government open.