Trump’s Defeat On Shutdown Will Hasten His Impeachment
As we head into Day 30 of the government shutdown, it seems to becoming clearer that funding for the wall is the existential battle of the Trump presidency, a defeat in which will bring his inevitable impeachment even closer. A big part of the reason for this is the psychological need to always win that seems to dominate all of Trump’s behavior. Trump’s ability to project the idea that he is always winning is a larger factor in the continued support he receives from his base than most imagine. And it is undeniable that he has, with good reason, been successfully able to project that impression for the last three years, especially with the help of the supine and sycophantic nature of the Republican Congress. Nancy Pelosi is destroying that façade.
Josh Marshall has long held a theory of politics that he calls “dominating by denigrating”. As he describes it, “One way — perhaps the best way — to demonstrate someone’s lack of toughness or strength is to attack them and show they are either unwilling or unable to defend themselves…Someone who can’t or won’t defend themselves certainly isn’t someone you can depend upon to defend you”. Trump is the absolute master of this kind of politics and it is why so many of his core supporters still believe he is defending them even as his policies make their lives more difficult.
If Trump loses the border wall fight, if he has to cave in the most humiliating way, that aura of toughness and dependability will disintegrate, especially when that defeat involves his primary campaign promise. Everybody loves a winner and Trump has certainly been that for quite a while. But things change drastically once you finally lose. Just ask Mike Tyson. Steve King is learning this lesson right now. That air of invincibility disappears and doubt fills the void, not only in the fighter but also with his supporters. The bluster and braggadocio that once seemed tough and strong now looks weak, petty, and mean. We can see Trump is already weakened in this fight, both with that lame Oval Office address that persuaded absolutely no one and the small, but real, trickle of Republican defections in both the House and the Senate.
Such a defeat will be even more humiliating for Trump because it will be the Republicans in the Senate who will be the ones to deliver the final blow, either by getting him to him to agree to re-open the government without funding for the wall or overriding his veto of such a bill.
Republicans, especially in the Senate, are facing a pincer movement, with the fallout from the shutdown on one side and the overwhelming and ever-increasing evidence of impeachable offenses – the collusion, conspiracy, and obstruction – that becomes impossible for even Republicans to ignore on the other. In their own way, each of these will erode Trump’s support, among his supporters and Republicans in the Senate, and a defeat on border wall funding could cause a real collapse. Trump’s approval rating currently stands at 37%. A crushing defeat on the wall could easily drop him another 5 or 7 points, putting him in danger of sinking below thirty. At that level, moving on to impeachment sooner rather than later almost becomes an imperative for vulnerable Senate Republicans.
Now is the time for Pelosi and the Democrats to stand firm. They must. Because allowing him to win in any way on this issue will make him believe he can get away with the unimaginable, and it will be hard enough to constrain him as his impeachment and impending conviction becomes a greater and greater reality. Forcing Trump to cave on the wall and the shutdown will mortally weaken him. Then Republicans will provide the coup-de-grace in the way of conviction of impeachment. The ultimate irony in this inevitable downfall of Trump, a misogynist, and serial sexual predator, is that it will be at the hands of women, Nancy Pelosi, and to some extent Stormy Daniels, who will have beaten Trump at his own game of domination.