Right Now, There Is No Rationale For A Biden Run

Reports are that Joe Biden will soon be making a decision regarding a run in 2020 and apparently he is leaning toward giving it a go. .Biden’s pitch has been that he would only run if he felt he was the only Democrat capable of beating Trump. In a clear indication that Biden believes that is actually the case, he recently told a close confidante “I don’t see the candidate who can clearly do what has to be done to win”. David Leonhart encouraged Biden’s run in an op-ed in today’s NY Times and, while his reasoning is tough to argue with, it hardly seems like a compelling reason to run. In fact, Biden’s rationale for running seems faulty at best.

First, there is a not unreasonable chance that Donald Trump will not be the 2020 Republican nominee. Only the Mueller team and Trump himself have any idea of what kind of criminality has been uncovered during the campaign, transition, and current administration. The overwhelming evidence of obstruction of justice has now morphed into a more overarching investigation into whether Trump is actually an agent of the Russian government, and the constant lying from everyone involved certainly suggests there is plenty to hide regarding contacts with Russia. Beyond Mueller, the criminality at the Trump Foundation and the Trump Organization as well as potential personal tax fraud are only now being thoroughly investigated. House Democrats will be focused on the rampant corruption that has been a feature of the Trump administration. The chances that at least one of these investigations will permanently cripple Trump politically for 2020 is probably higher than even some of the Trump skeptics think. That being the case, basing your campaign on the idea that you are the one to beat Trump may be misguided.

Biden also seems to believe he can position himself as a progressive candidate focused on free college tuition and expanding health care. But there will be a number of other Democratic candidates who have shown a longer and deeper commitment to those progressive issues and others, making his support for those positions look unexceptional and possibly expedient.

Moreover, the 2018 election represented the first step in a generational change in the Democratic party that is looking to radically restructure how our economy and government functions. That attempt is reflected in policies like the Green New Deal, some version of Medicare for All, electoral reform, and the restoration of higher marginal tax rates on the ultra-wealthy. Nothing against Biden, but he does not seem like the optimal messenger for these policies. In fact, Elizabeth Warren, who had a successful outing in Iowa, has spent most of her career focused on corporate reform, and has a whole host of serious policy proposals looks far better positioned than Biden to speak to these issues.

This is not to imply Biden is not without his strengths. He is still popular with important blocs of the Democratic constituency and has been a consistent liberal. His big drawing card is his apparent connection with white working class voters in the Midwest and his supposed abilities to reach across the aisle to Republicans. Unfortunately, neither of those will have enormous traction in the 2020 primary. If anything, the 2018 election, and to some degree the one in 2016 as well, showed that the path to Democratic success is through expanding and motivating its traditional base, especially among minority women. Working class whites will be won over, if at all possible, with policies that will benefit them.

I personally like Biden. He was a great VP under Obama and, as noted above, he has been a consistent liberal voice. Sure, he has ties to the credit card industry in his home state of Delaware and he has had some major faux-pas over the course of his long career, especially his support for many Third Way policies. But the real issue for Biden is that his time to be President has passed. Yes, he would be an asset to any Democrat on the campaign trail. But, 2020 is not his time to be at the top of the ticket.