Is Putin Preparing To Press Further Into Ukraine?
With Donald Trump under increasing pressure from the Mueller investigation and the UK expected to be in chaos after Tuesday’s predicted Brexit vote failure, it looks like Vladimir Putin has decided the time may be ripe to make his next move on Ukraine.
It was only a couple of weeks ago that Russian naval vessels attacked Ukrainian ships attempting to go through the Kerch Strait, an operation that continues to this day. In late November, new satellite imagery showed hundreds of Russian tanks assembled at a new base about 10 miles from the Ukrainian border. And then this weekend it was reported that Putin has warned his country’s largest banks to be prepared to be shut out of the SWIFT international transfer system.
It would certainly seem like an opportune time for Putin to make good on his Ukrainian ambitions. After all, what western leader would be able to put together a real coalition to stop him. A weakened Angela Merkel in Germany is trying to prepare a path for her successor. Emmanuel Macron in France, whose popularity is currently abysmal, is dealing with the revolt of the “yellow vests” and opposition to his pro-business, pro-rich agenda. Theresa May in the UK may well be dealing with a leadership challenge after her Brexit deal does down to defeat in Parliament on Tuesday. And Donald Trump has shown his unwillingness to confront Putin or any of the Trump Organization benefactors for their brazen breaches of international law as his perpetual refusal to criticize the Russian leader and the Khashoggi affair have so clearly illustrated.
The deal Russia made with the Trump campaign and its primary goal was to get the sanctions lifted. Trump has not been able or willing to endure the domestic political pressure to get that done, although he has done everything he can to minimize their impact such as delaying the new sanctions that were authorized by Congress as long as possible. With impeachment talk increasing and the ongoing revelations about all the lies that Trump has been spouting which the Russians knew and could prove were lies, Putin’s leverage over Trump is quickly diminishing. The Russian media has now begun regularly trashing Trump, especially after his public refusal to meet with Putin at the G-20.
Putin must now see how unlikely it will be for him to get the sanctions lifted in the foreseeable future. Perhaps, if Trump somehow remains as President and wins re-election in 2020, there may be another opportunity. But with sanctions now off the table, his current leverage dwindling, and western leaders in disarray, Putin may set his sights on the second prize, seizing more of eastern Ukraine and daring Trump and the western alliance to stop him.
