Prelude To The Final Putsch?
Even for the standards of this Trumpian era, this has been a wild week. Remarkably, the old white men in the Republican caucus are managing to offer even less respect to Christine Blasey Ford than they did to Anita Hill less than two decades ago. Essentially, Grassley and his cohorts have, from the start, set about to bully and intimidate Ford in the hopes that she won’t testify. The refusal to include any other witnesses, including a named eyewitness, as well as the setting of short, artificial deadlines and the take-it-or-leave it threats are all designed to intimidate Ford again, silence her, and ensure there is no search for the truth.
In addition, the Republicans on the Judiciary Committee have already signaled that it is their intention to vote Kavanaugh out of committee and send his name to the floor for a full Senate vote, regardless of what Ford says. Yesterday Mitch McConnell told the Values Voters conference, “Here’s what I want to tell you. In the very near future, Judge Kavanaugh will be on the U.S. Supreme Court. So, my friends, keep the faith. Don’t get rattled by all this. We’re going to plow right through it and do our job.”
The various defenses of Kavanaugh are also typical of the response to sexual assault allegations that women face all the time and actually undermine Kavanaugh’s denials. Despite the fact that Kavanaugh categorically denies the incident happened, some of his defenders claim that it shouldn’t matter because the incident was so long ago, implicitly undercutting Kavanaugh’s actual defense. Kevin Cramer, who is challenging Democrat Heidi Heitkamp in one of the most competitive Senate elections in the country, declared, “They were drunk. Nothing evidently happened in it all, even by her own accusation. Again, it was supposedly an attempt, or something, that never went anywhere.” Kramer is again acknowledging that something probably happened but, because the attempted rape was not successful, it’s not relevant.
Finally, Ed Whelan came up with a fantastical doppelganger defense, clearly in coordination with the Republicans on the Judiciary Committee and probably Kavanaugh and the White House. After failing to sell his theory to the press, Whelan claimed the attempted rapist was actually another classmate of Kavanaugh’s that looked remarkably like him. That libelous claim was thoroughly debunked and Ford herself claimed she knew both Kavanaugh and the classmate and was clear that her abuser was Kavanaugh. Whelan subsequently backed away from his claim.
At every step along the way, Republicans are angering the more educated suburban women that they will need in the upcoming election. The fact that Grassley and the Committee are doing only the most minimal investigation and Trump, an admitted serial sexual abuser himself, refuses to re-open the FBI background investigation on Kavanaugh only highlights the ways that women are silenced. Kavanaugh’s acquiescence in short-cutting any investigation similarly undermines his own protestations of innocence.
And, one way or another, there will be an investigation, either when Democrats win the House or simply if Ford actually files a complaint with the Montgomery City, Maryland police. There is no statute of limitations for this kind of crime in Maryland and the chief has already stated he will investigate if a complaint is filed.
All these points highlight the misogyny that permeates the Republican party and makes it more remarkable that the GOP is even continuing down this road. Kavanaugh is already the most unpopular nominee in recent polling history but he will also taint every subsequent Supreme Court opinion on women’s and minority rights in which he comprises one of the five majority votes. No matter how much Kavanaugh believes he is innocent, it is hard to believe that he insists on not withdrawing and saving the Court from that kind of stain.
Moreover, it would be so easy to toss Kavanaugh over the side and choose another equally or more conservative nominee who could easily get confirmed and probably get rammed through before the midterms. And there is no doubt that McConnell would be willing to push that nominee through during the lame duck session if he had to.
However, Kavanaugh has become more than just the fifth vote on the Supreme Court that will seal conservative control for at least a generation. It is now about proving that Trump and his ruling class of white Republican male co-conspirators can not have their authority challenged. As Albert Burneko writes, Trump and the Republicans are stating “all but explicitly We know he did this, you know he did this, everyone knows he did this, and you couldn’t stop us anyway“. That is the approach of authoritarianism and the goal is to create a fait-accompli before the midterm elections.
Even as the GOP continues to try to ram Kavanaugh’s confirmation through, Trump seemingly was provided the excuse he has been looking for to finally get rid of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein who is overseeing the Mueller investigation. The New York Times reports that Rosenstein apparently discussed wearing a wire when talking to President Trump as well as the possibility of removing him via the 25th Amendment. That report is apparently backed up by contemporaneous notes from Andy McCabe. Other news reports indicate that Rosenstein’s discussion of wearing a wire was sarcastic and never acted upon, as well as pointing out the virtual impossibility of Rosenstein being able to have any significant impact on the 25th Amendment process. This will add to Trump’s diatribes that the deep state is out to drive him out of office. But the fact that this was leaked by second and third hand sources without indicating the sarcasm also indicates there are forces within the Republican establishment that clearly want the Mueller investigation to end.
The Times’ story came out shortly after Trump had backed down from his order to declassify and release the Carter Page FISA application and texts from five FBI and DOJ officials involved in the Russia investigation. This request would either force resignations from FBI and DOJ officials for being asked to release information revealing sources and methods of intelligence activities or a refusal to release those documents, creating the opportunity for Trump to fire those refusing. Trump’s alleged reason for this retreat was that “key Allies” were worried about the release, presumably because of the exposure of sources and methods, but he left open the possibility of a future declassification and release. But it also occurred also after a meeting with Rosenstein and others in the White House to discuss this very issue.
Last night it was reported that Trump was polling his advisers about whether to fire Rosenstein. Remarkably, the talking heads on Fox News were not singing from the same song sheet on this issue like they usually do. Laura Ingraham wanted Trump to fire Rosenstein while Sean Hannity warned the President not to do so, claiming that “this is all a setup” in order to get Trump to fire Rosenstein and possibly others, creating a constitutional crisis, and setting in motion Trump’s removal. Lindsey Graham warned Trump to “BEWARE of anything coming out of the @nytimes.” Graham, or course, has already signaled that Trump would be free to fire Jeff Sessions after the midterms.
What accounts for the reluctance to follow through on the release of classified documents and the firing of Rosenstein is unknown at this point, especially when contrasted with the full court press on getting Kavanaugh confirmed. The two most plausible theories actually end up with similar results. First, Trump and the GOP already know that, if Ford either testifies or files a complaint, Kavanaugh is toast, and attacking the Russia investigation in any extreme way right now will just make it that much more difficult to quickly confirm a replacement. The alternate theory, one that I subscribe to, is that, in order to protect as many GOP members of Congress as possible in the upcoming midterms, the purge of Sessions, Rosenstein, and Mueller will wait until after those elections. In the interim, the GOP will continue to push ahead with Kavanaugh no matter how bad it gets. If Trump and the GOP make it clear that you can’t stop us by getting Kavanaugh confirmed, then it will be embolden them to shut down the Russia investigation afterward.
One last point relating to Anthony Kennedy. Most other respectable Supreme Court justices in decent physical and mental health have simply announced their retirement with the condition that they would stay on until their replacement was confirmed or providing ample time for the replacement to be confirmed, thereby allowing the Court to continue functioning with a full complement of justices as it should. But Kennedy conspired with the Trump administration to immediately retire in order to create this rush to confirm his chosen boy, Kavanaugh, by the time the new Court term began in October. It would be the ultimate irony if Kennedy’s selfish decision not only meant his chosen successor was not confirmed but that it contributed to Republicans losing control of both the House and the Senate.
