Stanley Cup Finals Preview
It will be the Washington Capital against the Las Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup finals starting tonight. Both teams got here using a similar formula in the previous round of the conference finals, namely scoring first and then shutting down the opposition.
Amazingly, in the twelve combined games in the conference finals, the team that scored first won every game but one. The Golden Knights defeated the Winnipeg Jets 4-1, taking the last four games in a row. (I had predicted the Jets winning in 7.) After the freewheeling Jets rolled in game 1, the Vegas defense and the goaltending of Marc Andre Fleury began to assert themselves. Starting in game 2, the Jets also began to show a woeful habit of giving up a goal within seconds of getting the goal that got them back in the game. It seemed every time the Jets tied the game up and seemingly grabbed the momentum, they would inevitably give one up almost immediately thereafter. They could never get their nose ahead in any game after game 1. Marc Andre Fleury stole game 3 for Vegas with multiple sequences of miraculous saves and Dustin Byfuglien, who had been a rock for Winnipeg all playoffs long, made a couple of egregious errors in game 4 that cost the Jets that game. After that, it was all she wrote, as the Vegas defense kept the Jets from the free skating game they like to play and Fleury was there to take care of any quality Jets chances.
The Caps took the longest route possible to beat the Tampa bay Lightning, winning in 7 games. (I had the Lightning winning in 6.) The Caps completely dominated the Lightning in the first two games of the series in Tampa. They outhustled, outhit, and totally outplayed the Lighting and, heading back to DC, it looked like it could be a quick series. But the next two games were a total reverse of the first two, with the Lightning shutting down the Caps offense and getting their own defense involved in the offense. And when the Caps put in a truly lackluster performance in game 5, it looked like another typical Washington collapse. But not this year and not this team. With Ovechkin leading the way on offense, the Caps totally shut down the Tampa offense, shutting them out in both game 6 and game 7 to win the series.
The lesson of the conference finals should carry over to the finals. Both teams are tough to breakdown when they get the lead, so scoring first should mean a lot in this series. The Caps power play is especially deadly, with Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie providing a dual scoring threat at forward and John Carlson blasting from the point. But the Golden Knights probably have the advantage in goal, with Fleury putting up record numbers for a playoff season. I have shown no faith in Caps goalie Brayden Holtby during these playoffs and he has defied my predictions throughout. He will have to continue playing at his recent level if the Caps are to win the Cup. In addition, it could really hurt the Caps if Brooks Orpik, who was injured in game 7 against the Lightning, misses more than a game or two. Finally, second-tier scoring for either team could be the deciding factor in this series.
There are a couple of larger stories to this final as well. George McPhee is responsible not only for putting together the core of the Capitals roster but also for building the Golden Knights from scratch into Cup finalists in this their very first year. Of course, long-struggling franchises like the Coyotes and Canucks may be more than a little envious and angry over an expansion draft system that allowed such a juggernaut to be so quickly built.
Lastly, this will be Alexander Ovechkin’s first trip to the finals, having suffered heartbreak after heartbreak in his 13 year career. The Caps historical playoff failures have been in spite of Ovechkin’s efforts rather than because his failure to produce. His supporting cast has just never been good enough. This year’s team is different, showing resilience throughout the playoffs and especially in the last series against the Lightning.
If there is any justice in this world, (and, looking at the current state of the world, you can see there isn’t), Vegas shouldn’t be rewarded for an expansion draft designed to make them successful and Ovechkin should finally win his championship.
Prediction: Caps in 7, with Ovechkin scoring an overtime winner.
