Eve Of Destruction
Somewhat lost in all of Rudy Giuliani’s incoherent rantings and seemingly damaging admissions in the last two days is the indication that Trump and his team have clearly moved beyond the cooperation phase, even if often phony, to the confrontational phase of their defense which is actually designed to create a constitutional crisis and move the whole issue into the political sphere.
The replacement of Ty Cobb with Emmet Flood, someone who worked on Clinton’s impeachment, is the clearest indication of this strategy. And, beyond the Comey and Daniels admissions, Giuliani made clear that Trump will not sit for an interview with Mueller. Rudy’s claims that Trump might consider that option if the time and questions were limited is something he knows every prosecutor will reject outright. Giuliani is almost begging Mueller to subpoena him and then fight that subpoena all the way to the Supreme Court.
Similarly, there is a cabal in the House Republican Caucus that is targeting Rod Rosenstein. Devin Nunes and others have been doing everything they can to subvert the Russian inquiry ever since Trump got elected, sometimes engaging in actions that border on obstruction of justice themselves. Their latest gambit is to demand that the DOJ produce details about Mueller’s ongoing investigation. (Of course, this being the House GOP, their earlier attempt along this line backfired badly when Rosenstein managed to leak the document in question, which contained information damaging to the President’s case in its entirety, thereby eliminating the chance for the GOP to selectively leak portions of it themselves.) If that information is provided, it is passed on to the White House to prepare its defense. If the information is not provided, then it is used as a way to attack and remove Rosenstein for being unresponsive. In preparation for that eventuality, they have already written up articles of impeachment against Rosenstein.
The whole idea behind this line of attack is obviously to create a pretext for Trump to fire Rosenstein, rather than actually impeaching him. If you believe Victoria Toensing, part of Trump’s Fox News legal team, Trump’s Article II powers gave him the right to fire Comey even if it was with corrupt intent and the same would apply for Rosenstein and probably even Mueller, although he could leave that to Rosenstein’s replacement if he wished. Politically, that plan is premature right now which is why these House members are working hard to create a barely palatable environment for it. If and when Trump does fire Rosenstein, it will trigger a constitutional crisis similar to Nixon’s Saturday Night Massacre.
The truly blockbuster story that was absolutely lost in the wake of Rudy’s ramblings was that it appears the Trump administration supplied Ukraine with anti-tank missiles in order to get that country to stop cooperating with the Mueller probe and the investigation into Paul Manafort. Ukraine also allowed an important witness, Konstantin Kalimnick, Manafort’s intermediary to the Russian oligarch Manafort owed millions to, to leave Ukraine for Russia, putting him out of reach of Mueller for questioning.
This is incredibly disturbing in that it indicates that Trump is more than willing to use his foreign policy power to obstruct the Mueller inquiry. It is especially bold in that selling these missiles to Ukraine, the only thing that the Trump campaign changed in the GOP platform to ensure didn’t happen, (probably to please the Russians), is bound to upset Putin, a man that Trump has shown to be loathe to cross or criticize. That fact alone indicates how dire the situation must be that Trump finds himself in.
An additional indication of the precariousness that Trump must feel was the ease with which Giuliani threw Jared Kushner overboard, calling him “disposable”. Jared, whose broad portfolio was simply designed to allow him to trade foreign policy favors for investments in his 666 Fifth Avenue money pit, has been remarkably silent and hidden over the last few months, potentially indicating that Jared himself has already jumped off the Trump train.
Trump has angered Republicans with his confidence and cavalier attitude toward the midterm elections. When confronted by McConnell and legislative liason Marc Short about having already lost the House and the potential for also losing the Senate, Trump was remarkably sanguine, saying, “That’s not going to happen”. This is obviously more Trump bluster and irrational confidence in his own abilities now that he is unleashed, but I do think it may be reflective of his election strategy as well as his tremendous ego and narcissism. Just like everything else, Trump intends to make the midterms about himself. And that is even more relevant considering the enormous pressure he finds himself under these days.
The best way to accomplish that would be to create a constitutional crisis at home while engaging in significant foreign policy ventures overseas. We see hints of that already when Giuliani claims that the President would be too busy to prepare for his Mueller testimony because he would be negotiating the release of hostages in North Korea. There is certainly no doubt that the current legal strategy is to provoke the constitutional crisis. And the incident with Ukraine and other countries such as China and Saudi Arabia shows that Trump has no compunction about using his foreign policy powers for his own personal benefit, both monetary and now political.
My guess is the talk of the Nobel Peace Prize is too shiny an object for Trump to pass up. He will make a terrible deal with North Korea that will allow Kim to probably keep a portion of his nuclear arsenal, (which Kim has no intention of giving up), but destroy his long-range ICBM capabilities, rendering the US safe but leaving South Korea and Japan badly exposed and angry. Trump is already pushing for a reduction in US forces in South Korea. And he will be able to tout the official ending of the Korean War and return of the North Korean hostages as an indication of his remarkable foreign policy exploits.
I expect that the real foreign policy crisis that Trump intends to provoke for the midterms is with Iran. He has shown every intention of scuttling the nuclear deal which will certainly result in the Iranians restarting their nuclear program at some level. In addition, we are for the first time seeing a direct US military presence in the Iran-Saudi proxy war in Yemen, an important escalation.
For Trump, the ideal approach to the midterms is the absolutely worst outcome for America – a constitutional crisis at home and a foreign policy/military conflict abroad. It will be the perfect “are you for me or against me” referendum that Trump’s own ego demands and is designed to fire up his base and get them to the polls. It will allow him to reprise his divisive rhetoric against Muslims and immigrants, fueling the “us against them” environment, all the while attacking his enemies within including the FBI and the Justice Department as well as the very concept of the rule of law. In the meantime, we will have abandoned our allies, started destructive trade wars with our partners, and be facing a domestic political crisis unlike anything we have seen in nearly half a century.
“But you tell me over and over and over again my friend, Ah, you don’t believe we’re on the eve of destruction.”