Trump Unconstrained
Reporting over the last few weeks as well as the actions of the President himself seem to indicate that Trump has reached the “screw it” point in his term. He has clearly decided to do things his way, without consultation from his advisers, a group that only seems to be shrinking to almost nothing as it is and pointedly not including his own family.
Maggie Haberman ascribes Trump’s new-found, shall we say, freedom to his finally feeling “comfortable” in the job of President. Others have linked Trump’s seemingly increasingly impulsive behavior to the closing in of the Mueller investigation. I have suggested the Stormy Daniels’ case is also creating more pressure than we think on Trump. The reality is that it is probably a combination of all three. It is also a reality that the pressure on Trump seems to be building by the day.
Certainly, the reports that Mueller has presented Trump’s legal team with at least areas of questioning, if not direct questions, as well as subpoenaing Trump organization documents clearly precipitated Trump’s tweets this weekend demanding the end of the Mueller investigation. The call for Mueller’s head was originated by Trump’s attorney John Dowd, who then claimed he was only speaking for himself. That statement was immediately rendered inoperative when Trump sent out his tweets.
According to the president of one of Trump’s failed Atlantic City casinos, “When he’s under pressure is when he tends to do this impulsive stuff. That’s what I saw in the business. When he began to have pressure with debts, when the [Taj Mahal casino in Atlantic City] was underperforming, is when he began acting very erratically.”
That impulsive behavior is reflected in his decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum over the objections of his senior economic adviser and without any consultation or coordination with the federal agencies involved. It is similarly reflected in the decision to meet with Kim Jung-un, without understanding the ramifications of taking such a meeting and without preparing the groundwork for it. It is reflected in the decision to fire Rex Tillerson and now in the direct attacks on the Mueller investigation.
Trump’s reckless behavior is compounded by the fact that there is no Republican agenda. Having passed the tax cuts that provide one of the greatest transfers of wealth to the top 0.1% in recent history, there is virtually nothing on the Congressional agenda until the fall elections. (Of course, that may be the GOP agenda in toto, passing tax cuts, funding the military, rolling back regulations, and doing nothing else for the rest of government). Moreover, Republicans look set to get overwhelmed by a Democratic wave this November, possibly flipping at least one house of Congress. It that were to happen, Trump knows that the next two years would be filled with investigations, subpoenas, under oath Congressional testimony, and possibly even impeachment.
Faced with that prospect, Trump realizes that the key to his political survival is to turn out the Republican base in the fall elections. That means that Trump feels compelled to constantly play to the most extreme elements of the party. The tariffs on steel and aluminum were an example of that, seemingly designed to influence the special election in Pennsylvania. In addition, Trump will soon propose additional tariffs on Chinese goods. It is also reported that Trump wants Congress to give him sole authority over setting tariffs, a move that would essentially sabotage and end the World Trade Organization agreements. Trump is also using these tariffs as a way to blackmail Mexico and Canada in the ongoing NAFTA negotiations and will probably eventually follow through on his promise to abrogate that agreement. By the time the fall elections roll around, it is quite possible that we will be in a global trade war, unless the Republicans in Congress somehow restrain Trump, something they have shown no interest in doing.
That is also why Trump continues to float the idea, probably insincerely, of trading security for DACA recipients for funding for his beloved border wall, despite that idea being constantly and totally squashed by Republicans in Congress. Trump is also putting forward the idea of a death penalty for certain types of drug dealers.
That same play to the base is why, according to Bob Corker, Trump will pull out of the Iran nuclear agreement in May. And pulling out of the nuclear agreement with Iran will certainly discourage the North Koreans from coming to any agreement themselves which will probably give Trump the excuse for some military strike against that country.
Trump will probably make new attempts to restrict immigration from predominantly Muslim countries and play more footsie with the alt-right, as well as more (usually bogus) claims about all the jobs that are coming back to the US. If things look really bad as we head toward the fall, attacks on judiciary and the electoral system are certain to come. After all, Trump admires authoritarians and has expressed a desire to do away with elections altogether, even if it was in a joke. In general, Trump will be playing to the worst instincts of his base and relying entirely on his own, with virtually no input from informed advisers, advisers who he is determined to ignore anyway.
This also means that the chances that Mueller will be fired between now and the fall elections are extremely high. Trump knows that the Republicans in Congress will not restrain him. After initial, albeit tepid, opposition to his tariffs, there is no legislation to prevent them. And the lack of response from the Republican leadership, which itself is complicit in allowing the Russian hacking, after this weekend’s attacks on Mueller are another green flag to Trump. McConnell has issued no statement on Trump’s threats at all and all Paul Ryan could muster was a pretty weak statement of support for Mueller through his spokesman. Aside from the usual suspects like Graham, McCain, and Flake, who have proven to be all talk and no action, the rest of the GOP has been remarkably silent.
Since we are talking about Trump, it is possible that he will be more bluster than substance on many of these issues. On the death penalty for drug dealers, for example, there are indications that he will merely be more aggressive in pushing for the death penalty in cases where the law already allows it. His constant hyperbole is just PR for his supporters and a way to provide signals for his low-information voters. On the other hand, his imposition of the tariffs, his meeting with North Korea, and his firing of Comey, Tillerson, and now McCabe show that there are certain areas where Trump is truly determined to act.
For the foreseeable future, then, our country, our democracy, and the world in general will be in greater danger than we’ve seen in many decades. Trump is now unconstrained and uncontrolled and his narcissism and egomania will feed his belief in his own reckless impulses. As I’ve argued before, we are already in a slow-moving constitutional crisis that is occurring on multiple levels. With Trump unconstrained and apparently under pressure, the pace of that crisis is likely to pick up in the coming months and, with a complicit and supine Republican party, the outcome is very much in doubt.
