Sergei Skripal's Attempted Assassination And Russian Collusion
When Sergei Skripal and his daughter were poisoned in Salisbury, England, literally days before the Russian elections, it raised a lot of questions about what Vladimir Putin’s motives for carrying out the attack might be. The use of the Novichok nerve agent was an incredibly aggressive method for assassination, as one British police officer was hospitalized and another 46 other British citizens sought medical treatment but did not need to be hospitalized. Using Novichok was a far more dangerous method for the Russians that poking someone with a poisoned umbrella or getting someone so drunk they died from multiple internal injuries because of their frequent falls.
Even more troubling was the fact that the use of Novichok so easily tied the assassination attempt back to Russia and made it seem that Putin actually wanted the world to know he had directed that killing. Considering that Putin was just days away from an election against his own hand-picked opponents and was guaranteed a massive win, his actions even seemed even more inscrutable. Some claimed that it was a projection of Putin’s power in a bid to boost his popularity at home. But that hardly seemed necessary in an election he knew he was going to win. Others surmise that Putin wanted to send a message to those who have betrayed Russia, especially those who have recently been uncovered in the wake of Russia’s interference in Western elections. But that message could easily have been sent without the use of a deadly and outlawed nerve agent like Novichok on foreign soil.
Moreover, the use of Novichok has prompted an enormous backlash against Putin, with 21 countries joining the UK in expelling Russian diplomats and sanctioning Russia in other ways. Putin has overreached in the past and, by and large, gotten away with it, for example, the shooting down of MH17 over Ukraine. But even Putin had to realize that this attempted assassination, carried out in this way and in the present environment of Russian interference in the West, would create enormous blowback.
But it is clear that Putin did want to send a message to those who have or will betray him and, by taking such an enormous risk with equally enormous repercussions, that message is strong and loud and clear – whatever it takes, Putin will get you. But Putin has sent that message before. Why now and in such an extreme way?
Over at TPM, Josh Marshall points out that Paul Manafort may have incredibly good reasons not to cooperate with Mueller. Manafort may have much more to fear than going to jail for the rest of his life and might even be more afraid of actually getting a pardon and walking free. After all, he owes a Russian oligarch millions of dollars, he is well aware of all the people and methods involved in the Russian interference in the Ukraine, as well as with any of the alleged collusion by the Trump campaign. In fact, Manafort may fear the exact same fate as Sergei Skripal.
As Marshall writes, “Yes, I know this sounds like an audacious suggestion. And I agree that it is hard to imagine that either the Russian government or powerful figures from the former Soviet Union would take such a reckless step on American soil. But look at the simple facts of the matter. Russia has killed a number of enemies abroad in recent years — not just in obscure lawless parts of the world but in major western metropoles”. But, based on what we now know about the death of Mikhail Lesin, Putin has already taken that “reckless step” on US soil.
Rick Gates is in exactly the same situation as Manafort, with the same exposure as Manafort. In fact, Gates may know even more than Manafort because he was more of a detail guy and because he spent longer inside the Trump campaign and transition. It strikes me as hardly a coincidence that Putin’s reckless assassination attempt on Skripal came less than two weeks after the news broke that Gates was going to cooperate with Mueller.
In addition, it seems highly probable that Gates must have significant information about the Trump campaign’s collusion with Russia. Recent reports indicate that Mueller felt he did not need Gates’ help with the case against Manafort, apparently feeling that the paper trail alone made the case a slam dunk. Rather, Mueller wanted Gates’ help in the collusion part of the investigation and, based on the rather lenient charges Mueller brought against him, Gates must have provided some pretty good information.
Since Trump’s election, there have been an unusually high number of Russian diplomats who have died under various, sometimes mysterious, circumstances. Whether these deaths are related to uncovering breaches in security that the Russians were able to glean from the revelations in the US about potential Trump-Russian collusion, or an attempt to “clean up” after that collusion, or are completed unrelated is, at this point, unclear. In a report this week from Richard Engle on MSNBC, another Russian living in the UK and similarly disaffected with Putin says that Skripal was on a Putin hit list which also now includes Christopher Steele, further giving credence to the theory that Putin is eliminating people with information about the Russian collusion. Indeed, the possibility that these deaths were part of a clean up, combined with Skripal’s attempted assassination, should create real concern with Gates and especially Manafort.
If you believe that Skripal’s attempted murder is a warning shot to Manafort and Gates, it then may also be a similar message to Donald Trump himself. It must be clear to Putin by now that the removal of sanctions, the very reason that Putin supported Trump, will just not happen. Worse for Putin, it seems that Trump is quietly increasing pressure and even sanctions on Russia, despite not publicly highlighting them.
Admittedly, all this is speculation. On the other hand, it explains Putin’s reckless actions as well or better than any other theory. And you can be sure if others have come up with the theory that Skripal’s attempted murder was a signal to Manafort and Gates, it has also occurred to Manafort and Gates themselves and their families. And even to Donald Trump and his family.
(NB: This post has been updated to show that, as of now, this was only an assassination attempt. Few people have been able to recover from a direct exposure to this kind of nerve agent without immediate medical assistance, which is not the case for Skripal. He remains in critical but stable condition, on life support, and his family does not expect him to survive. Even if he does manage to pull through, there is considerable risk that he has sustained permanent neurological damage. His life will never be the same, effectively extinguished on direct orders from Putin.)
