Trump, GOP's Denial Of Climate Change and Science in General Makes Us Less Prepared For Future
Over the weekend, it was reported that the new National Defense Strategy (NDS) no longer includes the words climate, warming, planet, sea levels, and temperature, in a reflection of the continued Republican refutation of basic, decided science. Climate change and its attendant destabilizing effects have been part of the National Defense Strategy since the 2008 NDS version created by the administration of George W. Bush.
Now, I’m pretty sure that the Defense Department has not dropped its focus on the potential effects of climate change and continues to game out scenarios in those areas where rising sea levels or severe drought creates the potential for serious unrest. And the concern about climate change strikes close to home for the US Navy in particular. As you can imagine, rising sea levels will threaten US naval bases all over the world. Already, the Navy’s most important base, Naval Station Norfolk located right here in Virginia, suffers from regular flooding which requires continual raising of the docks at the base.
But the refusal to acknowledge climate change will certainly make it more difficult for military leaders to plan effectively for the future. A small example of that is that the raising of the docks in Norfolk is covered under the maintenance budget and not under some long term appropriation that might address a more permanent solutions to the problem.
And, make no mistake about it, the climate change wars are already here and will only get worse. While the civil unrest in Somalia began just before the severe drought hit in 1992, there is no doubt that the collapse of that country was exacerbated by the drought. In addition, there is substantial evidence the conflicts within that country have increased in intensity during the subsequent periods of severe drought since then.
Another report linked the increasing aridity of the Fertile Crescent associated with climate change combined with a period of drought with the outbreak of civil war in Syria. The agricultural collapse in the Syrian countryside “led to the migration of as many as 1.5 million people from rural to urban areas. This in turn added to social stresses that eventually resulted in the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad in March 2011.” It is worth noting that American soldiers have lost their lives in the conflict in both Somalia and Syria.
Just recently, another report described a similar situation in Iran, leading to the recent protests against the government. According to the LA Times, “Many environmental activists believe Iran is quickly approaching its breaking point as diminishing rainfall and warmer temperatures have caused lakes to disappear, kicked up blinding dust storms and emptied out once fertile regions as farmers seek economic refuge in cities…In some of the hardest hit areas, including border provinces where ethnic and religious minorities complain of official neglect, concerns over natural resources were a key driver of the demonstrations that began in late December.”
The prior examples have shown the destabilizing effects on a national economy when climate change and drought force the collapse of agriculture and livestock and a resulting mass migration to the cities. In South Africa, we may be seeing the collapse of an entire city due to a lack of water in the coming weeks. According to authorities in Cape Town, the city will run out of water in early April due to a severe drought in the region. Authorities have warned residents that if the average daily use does not fall below 7 gallons a day, the city will run out of water on April 12th. Even with those cutbacks, the city will soon run out of water sometime later unless the drought breaks.
According to the Guardian, “The central business district will likely be spared a total shut-off to protect the economy and spare supplies will be directed to vital services, such as hospitals.” That seems like a recipe for serious unrest as the government essentially chooses who among the 4 million residents of the city does and does not get water. Wealthy Cape Town residents are already starting to leave the city and, as we have seen in the wake of hurricanes in New Orleans and now Houston, a good number of them may never return.
Denying climate change will not make it go away. And refusing to acknowledge its effects makes us far less prepared to deal with its consequences. Of course, this is part and parcel of the Republican party’s and the Trump administration’s denigration of the value of science in general, leading our government to make ill-informed and harmful decisions primarily to benefit a handful of plutocratic interests.
Jared Diamond, in his groundbreaking book “Collapse”, posits that the thriving society and culture on Easter Island suddenly collapsed when the forests on the island were finally depleted. I have often wondered about what could have driven someone to cut down the last tree. When you see the Trump administration, you realize how easily it could happen.
