The Wizard And The Woz Rule Down Under In The Land Of Oz
The Australian Open is often the most difficult major to handicap. First, it is really the beginning of the tennis year and it is hard to read just what kind of form the players have coming into the tournament. In addition, the conditions in Melbourne can be brutal and one long match in the oppressive heat can really mean the end of the tournament, even for the winner. And this year it was no different.
The men’s draw was kind of a lopsided affair. Roger Federer was in the bottom half of the draw with a handful of giant killers including Novak Djokovic, who was returning from injury, up and comers Alex Zverev and Dominick Thiem, and the always power-packed Juan Martin del Potro and Tomas Berdych. The top half was kind of thin with #1 Rafa Nadal also back from injury but not having played a warmup tournament coming into the event. I had predicted that his only competition in his half of the draw would be Gregor Dmitrov, Marin Cilic, or injury. That turned out to be prophetic.
Bizarrely, Federer’s half of the draw just opened up for him. Zverev faded in that final two sets to lose South Korea’s Hyeon Chung in five. Chung followed that up with another surprising victory over Djokovic, whose elbow injury clearly was still bothering him, in three tight sets. Thiem also faded in the conditions in losing to the surprising American journeyman and appropriately named Tennys Sandgren in five grueling sets. Berdych easily dispatched del Potro and Federer easily dispatched Berdych and advanced to the final without losing a set.
Nadal seemed back in form and well on his way to advancing to the final as well, creating the match-up tennis fans have been dreaming of since last year’s thrilling final. Nadal won a third set tiebreak against Cilic in the quarterfinal to go up two sets to one but fell apart in the fourth and eventually retired down 0-2 in the fifth. Thankfully, it was not the knee injury that had kept him out of action for the last six months. Instead it was a hip injury incurred early in that disastrous fourth set.
That set up a Federer-Cilic final. Federer got off to a quick start as Cilic seemed to have difficulty finding his range and Fed took an easy first set. Cilic righted himself in the second and won a tiebreak to tie it up at one set apiece. Federer then broke early and took the third and was up a break, 3-1, in the fourth, seemingly in full control, when he fell apart, his serve completely deserting him, and Cilic came alive. Cilic won five games on the trot and we went to a fifth set. The set was really decided in the first three games, where both players had break chances. Federer converted the ones he had and Cilic didn’t, letting Roger race out to a 3-0 lead that he never relinquished. My pre-tourney prediction wasn’t too bad. I had Fed beating Nadal in 5. Instead it was Cilic.
This was Federer’s 20th Grand Slam title, in addition to his 10 runner-up finishes. And, based on the rare show of emotion afterward, it was one that meant a lot to him. Sometime back in 2014 when Federer was recovering from his disastrous 2013 season, he said he still thought he could win 20 majors. With the way he was playing at that time and the ascendancy of Djokovic and Nadal, even I doubted him. But Federer rebuilt his game and proved his doubters wrong. And proved once again that he is surely the greatest of all time.
While Federer’s historic win was the story of the men’s draw, the entire women’s tournament was simply a feast for tennis fans. Without Serena Williams here, the draw was wide open and two women who have been top players for years but had yet to win a major, Caroline Wozniacki and Simona Halep, were perfectly positioned to finally break through. But neither were locks either as the results during to the two weeks showed.
The first shocker came when my pick to win it all, Garbine Muguruza, was simply destroyed by 32 year-old Taiwanese doubles specialist Su-Wei Hsieh. Hsieh hits two-handed from both sides and was simply an assassin with her drop shots and the precision, rather than power, of her ground strokes. Hsieh had played one of the most bizarre matches in her previous round, winning 0-6, 6-0, 8-6. She followed up her win over Muguruza by dispatching Aggie Radwanska in two sets as well. And it looked like she would do the same to a resurgent Angie Kerber when she went up a break in the second but couldn’t hold on and ran out of gas in the third, bringing an end to one of the surprising and unique runs of the tournament. Kerber herself had dispatched Maria Sharapova with ease in the prior round. And she also dispatched a truly listless and uninspired Madison Keys in the quarters after her match with Hsieh. Kerber, who was dominant in 2016, was truly awful in 2017, losing faith in her serve and her ground strokes, but seems to have finally regained her form.
Meanwhile, it appeared that Halep and Wozniacki were still cruising along to meet in the final. That changed when Halep faced American Lauren Davis in the round of 32. Davis’ powerful ground strokes kept Halep on defense and in permanent retrieval mode. It looked like a major upset when Davis was able to serve for the match in the second but Halep kept fighting, broke back, and won the set 6-4. There followed an epic 2 hour and 22 minute third set, filled with multiple breaks, with multiple match points for both players, and brutally long and physical rallies. Davis had to be treated for toe issues and Halep was clearly hampered by her ankle which she rolled in the first round. In the end, Halep won this intense battle of wills 15-13 in the final set. An incredible stat that just shows the high caliber of play and the defensive capabilities of Halep, Davis’ backhand was clocked with the highest average speed of any player, man or woman, in a single match in the tournament.
But Halep wasn’t done with that kind of magic and determination. In the semifinal she faced the resurgent Kerber and it was Halep who looked destined for a quick two-set victory when she went up a break in the second set. But this time it was Kerber who kept fighting, broke back, and went on to win the set 6-4. That led to another wild third set, again with multiple breaks, multiple chances to serve for the match, and more long, punishing points with both players have two chances at match point. In the end, Halep again won the battle of wills 9-7.
That set up the final against Wozniacki, with both players seeking their first major and the winner taking the #1 ranking. Wozniacki raced out to a 4-1 lead in the opening set as Halep just looked totally depleted after two weeks of battle and an astonishing 11.5 hours on court. But, again, Halep fought back and forced a tiebreak which she eventually lost rather easily. And it looked like it might be clear sailing for Wozniacki in the second when Halep called the trainers and had her blood pressure taken. But that actually seemed to revive Halep who ran off three straight games to take the set 6-3 and set up another wild and dramatic final set. Again, both players broke each other early in the set but could never consolidate those breaks. Halep often looked to be simply just hanging on as these two defensive players played more long, punishing points but seemingly took control when she broke Wozniacki to take a 4-3 lead. This time it was Wozniacki who called for the trainers to attend to a knee problem and, like Halep in the second, seemed to be rejuvenated by that visit. Wozniacki ran off the next three games to win the title 6-4 in the third as Halep was just physically spent. A disappointed Halep had to later be taken to the hospital for a short time to be treated for heat exhaustion.
The wins for both Federer and Wozniacki were redemptions for both players. This is Federer’s third title in the last year, proving that his decision to revamp his game a few years ago was the right one. He now keeps the points shorter and perhaps is less balletic than in the past, but the results are the same. And this year, the draw broke his way in a most favorable way. The only sets he lost were in the finals.
Similarly, Wozniacki had relied on her brilliant defense to become #1 in the world. But that was six years ago and she hadn’t been to a Grand Slam final in four years. In 2016, she fell out of the top 50 and her career seemed to be ending. Instead, she rebuilt her game from the ground up and became a far more attacking and powerful player. And that paid off this year, as she finally won a Grand Slam and regained #1 status. It is a real testament to her drive and determination to make such a dramatic change in her game at that stage of her career and it was deservedly rewarded.
Wozniacki’s success should be a lesson for Halep. I had predicted that Muguruza would face Wozniacki in the final, primarily because I didn’t think Halep could play her defensive style and still survive to the final in the tough Australian conditions. But she proved me wrong. In the end, however, she had just spent too much time on court. By the time the third set had started in the final, Halep had spent over 13 hours on court in some of the most grueling matches of the tournament. She simply had nothing left. Halep has gotten better at being playing aggressive tennis – she had an impressive number of winners in the final. As Wozniacki’s win shows, if Halep can just continue down that path and rely less on her defensive skills, that elusive grand Slam victory will come.
It will be interesting to see what happens when Serena Williams returns to action in a month or so. She has been so dominant over the years. But it is clear that, even without Williams, the women’s tour is enormously competitive and can provide some wildly entertaining matches, even more so than the men.
In any case, the Australian Open got the tennis year off to a fabulous start, providing an historic win on the men’s side, a first-time winner on the women’s, and a boatload of entertaining tennis. What more could we ask for.
