Putin Has Already Won The New Cold War; China Is The Victor
Despite Donald Trump’s campaign speech outlining his and Steven Miller’s views on national security, the new National Security Strategy document is the first real sign that the Trump administration is acknowledging the fact that Russia has clearly begun to attack the Western Alliance in a New Cold War. On paper, at least, the strategy declares that Russia, and China, for that matter, present a “challenge to American power, influence and interests” and are “attempting to erode American security and prosperity.” It imposes new sanctions on individual Russians and associated henchmen as well as finally providing lethal assistance to Ukraine.
But the truth of the matter is that the US has already lost the New Cold War. Despite what the strategy may say, the President himself seems entirely uninterested in fighting back, either against Russia or China. Today, America is as isolated as it has ever been in the post-war period and our allies are looking elsewhere for leadership.
Russian hacking was not entirely responsible for Trump’s shocking election, but it was an important part. Trump’s refusal to criticize or confront Putin, his seeming desire to actually lift the crippling sanctions against the Russian oligarchs, and his unwillingness to affirm his commitment to Article V and support NATO immediately sowed distrust among our most important allies in Europe. The Europeans see Putin attempting to regain the lands lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union and additionally make inroads into Western Europe through his support of far-right and separatist movements throughout the Continent. The EU, already damaged politically and economically by the restrictions and distortions created by the single currency, is merely trying to stay intact, fighting threats from within and without. At they same time, they recognize that the US is no longer a reliable ally that will protect them from Russian incursions.
Meanwhile, a similar but not nearly as dire a process is playing out in the Far East. The TPP may have been a flawed agreement that protected interests of a handful of US industries but it was an important agreement to the Asian countries that had committed to it and are currently committed to implementing it without the US. The TPP was designed to create a bulwark against the expanding power and reach of China in South Asia. Without US participation after Trump pulled out of the agreement, it will do little to accomplish that. Trump has even managed to alienate out staunchest ally in the region, Australia, from his very first contact with their government. The issue in Australia today is actually focused on whether China has too much influence on Australian politics and policies. The US is almost an afterthought.
Moreover, Trump’s continual escalation of the North Korean crisis means that the US is becoming increasingly reliant on China to police Kim Jung-un, if that is even possible. That reduces the likelihood that the US will confront or restrain China in any meaningful way. In addition, Asian allies see that Trump was easily bought off by President Xi with a few trademarks and an enormous parade. As the threat for other Asian countries increases, so does their understanding that the US is increasingly irrelevant in solving the crisis.
Rex Tillerson’s destruction of the State Department has left us with no voice around the world. In fact, American foreign policy is almost indiscernible for many countries. There are the military men, McMaster and Mattis, who seem to be trying to keep America’s traditional allies and policies relatively intact. Tillerson is recognized not only as totally ineffective but also as someone who clearly does not speak for the administration. Nikki Haley at the UN seems to have her own mandate that occasionally does not seem to align with the President’s. And there is Jared Kushner who seems to believe he can play an international game of power politics almost as a hobby. And, of course, there is the President himself who is constantly going off half-cocked and is consistently unreliable. This isn’t good cop, bad cop. It’s simply chaos.
If there was every an indication of failure of US foreign policy, it was the decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem. In hindsight, it looks like part of this decision was driven by the fact that Trump needed to keep his evangelist base in line when it became clear that the promised repeal of the Johnson Amendment that would allow churches and non-profits to actively engage in politics would not be part of the tax bill. Jerusalem was a bone to throw his base. The reaction, of course, was swift, and yesterday’s vote in the UN confirmed just how isolated the US has become. The pathetic total of nine votes supporting the US decision unsurprisingly contained only two countries of note, the US and Israel.
In addition, the threats to cut off US aid to individual nations as well as the UN backfired badly. Canada reportedly was prepared to support the US but ended up abstaining in order to avoid looking like it had caved to US pressure. Other countries, especially important European and Mideast allies openly defied those US threats.
From a geopolitical standpoint, the UN vote is almost meaningless. But the united opposition, especially in the wake of open and direct threats of retribution from the US, shows how far Trump has allowed US leadership to fall. Countries probably believe that Trump is bluffing. But, even if not, they know that the void the US creates by cutting them off will be easily filled by Russia or, more likely, China. Today, Russia is an economic disaster and its ability to project power relies purely on the power of Putin to extract whatever leverage he has. China, on the other hand, can afford to spend freely, expanding its soft power in the same way the US used to in the late 20th century. Its One Belt, One Road policy is expanding its influence in Eurasia and Africa, while also being popular at home. It’s already the dominant power in Asia.
Every day, America’s isolation grows. The President is not welcome in Britain, our staunchest ally by far. Pence is not welcome in the Mideast and Tillerson is virtually ignored wherever he goes. The useless war in Afghanistan seems well on its way to lasting into a third decade. The UN vote confirms our diplomatic isolation. Domestically, the country is being systematically looted by plutocrats. The ongoing opioid epidemic and the refusal to provide universal health care means that the country is now seeing its second year in a row of falling life expectancy.
Now some might say that this is part of what Trump promised, to withdraw from the world and focus our energies at home. But withdrawing from the world does not necessarily mean becoming totally isolated. And it is clear that Trump still wants to project American power in certain areas. Certainly, his agreement to another surge in Afghanistan shows his willingness to do exactly that. And his insistence that military spending still be increased also flies in the face of a domestic focus. Yes, America is still an enormous military and economic power. But wielding that power unilaterally has always been fraught with difficulty and disaster.
As the US decides to pick up its marbles and go home, it will soon find that the game continued on very well without us. And the void we create by leaving will be willingly filled by others. Around the world, there is an increasing recognition that it will be China that fills the void, creating their own “China’s century”.
