Beyond 'Bama
Despite desperately wanting to, I’m trying not to read too much into Doug Jones shocking but razor-thin victory last night. It truly was an unthinkable victory and the most remarkable rebuke to Trumpian politics from a most unlikely place.
Moore was an especially terrible candidate, even without the credible accusations of child molestation. He was uniquely unpopular even within the Alabama Republican party. He barely campaigned at all and, in the rare public appearances he did make, he usually managed to further inflame the electorate and damage his candidacy.
Despite all that, he came within a whisker of winning and still won a clear majority of the white vote. And despite Moore’s losing the popular vote, it should also be noted that the Republican won the majority of six out of seven Congressional districts in the state.
The fact that white voters still consider a possible pedophile preferable to even a moderate, sensible, centrist Democrat for whatever racial, economic, or tribal reasons, and the devastating effects of extreme gerrymandering and voter suppression show just how high the electoral hurdles are for Democrats.
The flip side to this view is just how Doug Jones was actually able to win this election. He spoke to the issues that concerned Alabama voters. He was true to his belief in a woman’s right to choose and made no apology for it or waffled in any way on the issue. He focused on energizing his already highly motivated base and converting wealthier, centrist, suburban voters with a message based on economics and values.
While Jones was helped by the massive turnout and margins among black voters, the age breakdown of Jones’ voters is what provides the real hope for the future for Democrats. Voters under the age of 44 preferred the Democratic candidate by 61%. That is a recipe for a generation or two of Democratic dominance of the same magnitude that Reagan produced for Republicans back in the 1980s. And that, combined with actually getting out the Democratic base, is something to read a lot into.
