Stalled Brexit Negotiations Raise the Possibility Of No Deal At All
Time seems to be running out on the first phase of the Brexit issues which was supposed to work out the whole process of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union by resolving the issues with the Irish border, the separation payment, and the rights of EU and UK citizens. With only weeks remaining, it is really time for rubber to meet the road. But, as usual, the chaos within Theresa May’s government and her seeming lack of recognition of the weakness of the UK’s position makes any agreement on withdrawal no sure thing.
The UK’s chief Brexit negotiator, David Davis, gave a speech in Germany the other day where he laid out a short term future that looked a lot like no Brexit at all. Davis described a “time limited transition period” that would mean “access to the UK and European markets would continue on current terms. Keeping both the rights of a European Union member and the obligations of one, such as the role of the European Court of Justice. That also means staying in all the EU regulators and agencies during that limited period. Which would be about two years.” Essentially, this plan just delays the implementation for another two years. In this time, Davis would work out a “deep and comprehensive free trade agreement”. That pretty much sounds exactly like what the present Brexit negotiations are supposed to be all about. And maybe this will be the UK’s way out of Brexit, a continued temporary extension of business as usual until the negotiations are finally complete.
One journalist suggested to Davis after the speech that the British government seems to be “in chaos” to which Davis replied, “One of the issues in modern politics is that all governments have periods of turbulence. This is a period of turbulence, it will pass.” Of course, it may not pass in time to avoid a disastrous, chaotic break between the UK and the EU.
But that journalist is not the only one who believes the current British government is not up to the task ahead of it. Ireland’s Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar, made his own views clear when he said, “We’ve been given assurances that there will be no hard border in Ireland, that there won’t be any physical infrastructure, that we won’t go back to the borders of the past. We want that written down in practical terms in the conclusions of phase one…It’s 18 months since the referendum. It’s 10 years since people who wanted a referendum started agitating for one. Sometimes it doesn’t seem like they have thought all this through.”
Varadkar then went to meet with May specifically about the border issue and described May’s comments afterward that they were on the same page as “wishful thinking”. Varadkar has threatened to block any movement toward phase two of the negotiations until the border issue is worked out.
Of course, one of the biggest stumbling blocks in order to move on to phase two is the payment that the UK will need to make to the EU in order to leave. The EU has demanded a £50 to £60 billion exit fee. So far the UK has offered to pay £20 billion which the Europeans have summarily rejected. There were reports that May is prepared to offer an additional £20 billion, bringing the total to £40 billion and within reach of the EU’s demands, but those rumors were described by Downing Street as “yet more speculation”.
May seems to be between a rock and a hard place. A £40 to £50 billion payout may just not be palatable to her razor thin majority in Parliament. But the possibility of being unable to reach an agreement on the UK’s withdrawal will mean those same hardliners will demand May walk away from the negotiating table and essentially end Brexit with no deal and a disastrous and chaotic clean break. The Dutch Parliament just put out a statement dealing with that nightmare scenario, saying, “What was long considered impossible is suddenly thinkable: a chaos scenario in which the UK abruptly leaves the EU on 29 March 2019 without an exit agreement, a transition period or a framework for future relations. The Netherlands must be ready for this. Government services such as customs and inspection agencies must be prepared. Roadmaps must be ready for several economic sectors, notably transport, agriculture and fisheries.” That scenario would mean chaos on both sides of the English Channel, as nationals in both Europe and the UK would not know their status and would create customs and immigration issues as well as a trade and economic nightmare.
To paraphrase Varadkar, perhaps this Brexit thing wasn’t too thoroughly thought out. Of course, this is what happens when you offer unrealistic and destructive proposals in the hopes of winning elections and then are forced to follow through on them.
