UK Election Wrapup
When we last left you in the UK election, there were just two dozen seats remaining to be called and the projected final result was 318 for the Conservatives and 262 for Labour. With just one recount continuing in Kensington, it looks like that number will hold. Theresa May will have lost 12 seats and Labour will have picked up 33. The result is a hung Parliament. Theresa May is determined to remain Conservative leader and will probably cobble together a working government by joining forces in some way with the 10 seats controlled by Northern Ireland’s DUP party.
Winners
The Labour party – This election was supposed to create massive losses for Labour and essentially eliminate the party as a potential governing force for a generation. Instead, it has been the party’s resurrection. Many disaffected Labour voters who voted for Brexit and abandoned the party in 2015 have apparently returned to the fold. More importantly, the party has found strength by attracting and motivating an enormous number of younger voters. Exit polls show that turnout among 18-34 year olds rose 12% over 2015 and 60% of that age cohort voted for Labour. Far from being damaged for a generation, Labour seems to have set it itself up quite nicely for the next decade if they can keep these voters motivated.
While some may say it is absurd to declare Labour winners since they did not win the election and will probably not be forming a government, only six weeks ago the party was looking at a 20 point deficit in the polls and a potential loss of over 65 seats. This morning, they look to have lost the popular vote by around 3% and have gained 32 seats. A 100 seat turnaround from the expectations is an enormous win, no matter how you look at it.
Jeremy Corbyn – Just over six months ago, Labour MPs supported a no-confidence vote on Corbyn by a whopping 172-40 and forced a leadership election that Corbyn won with over 60% of the vote of the rank and file members of the party. Election results since that challenge had not been particularly inspiring and it was assumed that Corbyn would be ousted after Labour was routed in this snap election. This morning, any challenge to his leadership position in the party looks to be a long way off and his critics, both inside and outside Westminster, are having to eat crow.
In fact, Corbyn proved to be an engaging and effective campaigner and it soon became apparent that he was not the raving Marxist lunatic that he had been portrayed as in the British tabloids. In fact, he equaled or bested May in the “debates” that they had. Moreover, by crafting a traditional left-wing, progressive platform that focused on anti-austerity and kitchen table issues, Corbyn defined the election as the age-old choice between left and right, energizing younger voters and bringing disaffected Labour voters back into the fold.
Lastly, from the very beginning of his leadership, Corbyn focused on signing up new members of the Labour party. Certainly part of the motivation for this effort was to help shore up his tenuous leadership. But, in the end, it has proved invaluable to Corbyn and Labour. Exit polls show that 66% of voters between the age of 18-24 voted for Corbyn’s party. Of that 66%, 36% were first time voters who brought other voters or family members to the polls with them.
Ruth Davidson – The leader of the Scottish Conservative party was one of the only real winners in the Conservative party last night. In fact, Theresa May would probably not have been able to even try to from a government without the 12 seats that the Tories gained in Scotland. Davidson focused on areas that were not interested in another Scottish independence vote and were pro-Brexit and she succeeded.
The Democratic Unionist Party – The party gained two seats in Parliament and can pretty much get what it asks for as the Conservatives coalition partner. That will probably include increased spending in Northern Ireland and some kind of promise that the Brexit negotiations will not allow for a path to an independent Northern Ireland, access to the single market, and some free flow of people between the two Irelands at a minimum.
Losers
Theresa May – The Conservative leader managed to take an overwhelming advantage and essentially blow it. She ran a horrible campaign that showed that she was fragile, wavering, and unable to delve into details as opposed to the image of a strong leader she was trying to project. While she will probably be able to cobble together a coalition government and remain as PM, her days are clearly numbered. Boris Johnson, among others, is sharpening his knife for the propitious moment to make a leadership challenge.
Conservative party – For a party that was supposed to consolidate its ruling position perhaps for the next decade, last night was a disaster. Their manifesto was horrible and the “dementia tax” was probably the turning point in the campaign. May’s closed leadership circle will now be dismantled but it is unclear what will replace it. The party will now be even more split by those Tories who somehow want a Brexit that allows access to the single market and perhaps even somehow maintains access to the free movement of people and those, like May, who championed a “hard” Brexit. In addition, the austerity budget and much of the rest of the disastrous Conservative platform is likely to be scrapped as well.
Nicola Sturgeon – Her Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) lost 21 seats last night as well as her top deputy, Angus Robertson, and her mentor, Alex Salmond. The SNP will still be the largest party in Scotland and Sturgeon’s leadership is not in doubt. But it is clear that her intention for a second independence referendum was a key factor in the party’s losses and that option is now clearly off the table.
UKIP and other smaller parties – As I wrote last night, both the Conservatives and Labour expanded their share of the vote from 2015 last night. And those votes not only came in the form of Labour’s new voters but also largely at the expense of these smaller parties. UKIP, in particular, was decimated, winning no seats and leader Paul Nuttall has already resigned. The Liberal Democrats did not really increase their share of the vote, but did gain 4 seats. That was far below their hopes and expectations. In addition, their former leader, Nick Clegg, also went down to defeat. The Greens actually saw their share of the vote decrease but did hold on to the one seat they had in Parliament.
The Future
During the campaign, Theresa May warned of the “coalition of chaos” if Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the SNP formed a coalition. Unfortunately, it is possible that May was correct, except the coalition will be the one she will be leading. She can probably count on solid support from the DUP but that may not be the case within her own Conservative party. The result will be months of continued uncertainty.
It is hard to see what the domestic Conservative agenda will now be and how they can actually move on it. In a similar vein, it is also hard to see what the negotiating stance on Brexit will be, although that may matter less as the EU holds all the cards anyway. But the uncertainty could just delay any real talks for a few more months, frittering away necessary time to reach some agreements before the two year deadline arrives.
In many respects, Labour should be happy that they do not have to form a government. It is far better for the party strategically to have a weak, ineffective Conservative government stew in their own juices for a few months and be forced to deal with the mess that will be Brexit. In addition, Labour may be helped by Nicola Sturgeon’s and the SNP’s losses as she is now abandoning independence and sounding much more accommodating about forming a progressive alliance with Labour to stop Tory inroads in Scotland.
The country is more divided than ever with younger, progressive, pro-EU Labour voters pitted against older Conservatives. In many ways, this election may have been the revenge of the 48% that voted to remain. Today, there is at least some sub rosa whispers that Brexit may not happen at all.
What all this means is chaos at a time when the country can least afford it. I expect another election in the fall, but with the current divide it is conceivable that another election would yield a similar result.