Oddly, Both Parties Want To Delay Trump Impeachment Until 2018

I think there is a bizarre dynamic that actually merges Republican and Democratic interests when it comes to the timing of the looming impeachment of Donald Trump. I think, at this point, after Comey’s statement and testimony to be given today, it is clear that Trump obstructed justice on multiple occasions. That alone probably makes his presidency untenable, even with Republicans. And everyone also knows that there are more instances of his obstruction of justice to come, based on his attempts to get members of the intelligence community and Congress to get Comey to back off or slow down.

Even worse, none of the Republicans know whether there is a further underlying crime in Trump’s or his associate’s contacts with Russia. This could be collusion with the Russians in their interference in the election or simply trading election strategy or policy decisions for personal profit. And, as I have indicated before, there is already evidence out there that the Russian interference in the election was to help Republicans in general, more than just Trump specifically, as well as evidence that GOP Congressional leadership knew about the Russian’s interference and did nothing to stop it. In fact, they tried to ensure that information did not get to the American public. And I haven’t even mentioned Trump’s erratic and destructive foreign policy.

So, I think most Republicans in Congress know, deep down, that Trump will eventually have to go. But overriding that realization, for the moment, is the hope that they can ram through the elimination of Medicaid and pass a massive tax cut before they have to deal with a 2018 budget and the debt ceiling. There is just no time or will to deal with Trump right now. He will have to wait.

In fact, Republicans are only too happy to have the focus be on Trump right now. It gives them time and cover to work out the details of rolling back Medicaid and then ram it through without any deliberation, and probably without a CBO score, just like in the House. Once that is accomplished, they will probably take the same approach with the massive tax cuts they want to pass. Having actually passed some legislation, no matter how horrible it may be, actually puts them in a better position to win re-election in 2018, even if they impeach Trump. To impeach him without any legislative record to run on probably dooms them in the fall of next year.

Democrats, on the other hand, also believe that Trump needs to be impeached. While many Congressional Democrats are loathe to use the words “obstruction of justice”, much less “impeachment”, that is primarily because the evidence against Trump speaks for itself and there is no reason for Democrats to get ahead of themselves and the public at large.

In addition, in order to position themselves for 2018, it is far better for Democrats to let the Russian investigation and impeachment process play out for as long as possible. Forcing the Trump impeachment process to dominate the news next summer would be strategically ideal for the Democrats.

Right now, Democrats have no real ability to stop Republican legislation. The best they can hope for is to slow it down and rely on the dysfunction in the Republican caucus as a whole and in the Trump administration. So, tying up Congressional time with hearing about Trump’s abuses is about the best tactic they currently have. But Democrats must still not lose focus on the cruelty of Republican legislation and be able to rally their troops to oppose it in the limited time Republicans will give them before the bills actually comes to a vote.

So, we are left in this strange position where both parties are interested in dragging out this Russian investigation for the time being. Yes, Republicans will continue to half-heartedly defend Trump and Democrats will say we need to get to the bottom of things. But right now both parties are probably not interested in dealing with the Trump problem until next year.