Theresa May Be Blowing It

Theresa May is blowing it. When she called the snap election back in mid-April, polls showed that the Conservatives had a large double digit lead over Labour and were expected to gain over 80 seats in Parliament.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the election. First, Labour’s manifesto showed it to be full of sensible proposals to help working Britons and not the crazed ramblings of a far left loony as Jeremy Corbyn is mostly depicted in the British media. The highlights of the plan include a childcare proposal, increased funding for the NHS, an increase in the carer’s allowance, and a renewed commitment to education. All this was paid for by an increase in taxes on higher earners and a tax on the financial industry.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives were relying on Theresa May’s impersonation of a strong leader to carry them to victory. That was always suspect but it was compounded when their own manifesto scrapped free school lunches and replaced them with lighter breakfasts but also introduced what became labeled as the “dementia tax”. This new tax was designed to replace the already unpopular cap on lifetime care that was supposed to go into effect in 2020. Instead, it removed the cap but instituted an expanded threshold at which means testing would kick in to include the value of a person’s property. For many requiring long-term care, such as dementia, this would mean that the government would seize their property after they died in order to offset the cost of their care, leaving no inheritance for the patient’s children. Thus the “dementia tax”.

This tax was so unpopular that May had to publicly reverse course. But even that was a disaster as the new plan simply put a cap on the amount the government could recoup after death. All this meant, though, is that relatively poorer patients would lose all their property while richer ones would have more to leave their children. And her explanation for this new plan was shaky at best and has exposed the myth of her “strong” leadership possibly more than her (mis)handling of the Brexit negotiations.

All this has meant that Labour has cut the Tory lead in the polls in half, to just nine points. Among 25 to 49 year olds, 15% are more likely to vote for Labour than before the election was called. Corbyn himself has seen has seen his positivity rating climb into the plus territory for the first time. At present, it looks possible that the Conservative gains in Parliament may fall below 20 seats. Corbyn may in fact get a greater share of the vote than Ed Milliband did in 2015. And, right now, it seems that Labour still has all the momentum. It remains to be seen whether the terrorist attack in Manchester last night will change that.

In addition, it is becoming increasingly apparent that May’s constant repetition of her “strong” leadership actually covers for her weakness and evasiveness. In addition, there may finally be a realization among some in the electorate of just how weak the UK’s negotiating position is when it comes to Brexit. And May’s breezy platitudes about the great deal she will cut with the Europeans is beginning to ring hollow.

The Conservatives are still favored to win the election and increase their margin in Parliament. But it looks increasing likely that will not be because of the total collapse of the Labour party. The Tories have enormous structural advantages at the moment, with the collapse of Liberal Democrats after their disastrous decision to form a government with Cameron, the decimation of Labour in Scotland in favor the SNP, and the co-opting of the nationalist agenda of UKIP. 

Despite all these advantages, it appears that the more people see of May and the Conservative agenda, the more they don’t like either. The idea behind the snap election was to give the Conservatives an enormous majority in Parliament and perhaps decimate the Labour party in the same way Conservatives demolished the Liberal Democrats in 2015. Instead, it appears that the Tories will only slightly increase their margin in Parliament, if that, and Labour will actually improve its standing, despite still losing seats. May, on the other hand, will emerge even weaker than before.