May Faces Real Possibility Of Hung Parliament As Lead Collapses

As we saw in the most recent US election, national polls do not necessarily translate into electoral victory, even when the polls rightly predict who will get the most votes nationally. But the latest polls out of the UK sure have to be troubling for Theresa May and the Conservatives.

The latest composite poll from BritainElects shows that the Conservative lead over Labour has shrunk to 13 points, 46% to 33%. But Labour has increased its position markedly in the last week or so and, in fact, the latest YouGuv poll actually shows that lead shrinking to a mere 5%. More importantly, in that YouGuv poll, the combination of Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP, and Greens total 52% to the combination of Conservative and UKIP of just 47%, implying the very real possibility of a hung Parliament.

The turning point in the campaign was the release of the Conservative and Labour manifestos. Labour’s was seen as far more reasonable than something coming from Jeremy Corbyn, but the Conservative manifesto was universally disliked. The so-called “dementia tax” has suppressed Tory support among its key base of older voters, even after the attempted reversal of the policy. In addition, Theresa May has shown herself to be incapable of comprehensibly defending the policies in the manifestos, repeatedly dodging questions and fobbing the details off to be worked out in Parliament. She has taken the same tack for months in regard to the Brexit negotiations.

It is still too early to see how the Manchester bombing will effect the race as May is seen far more favorably on terrorism than Corbyn. The YouGuv poll is one of the first after that tragedy which is why the resulting is slightly surprising. But the trend is clearly currently moving swiftly against the Conservatives. Part of this is probably a firming of support among Labour voters but a lot of it is the budding realization that Theresa May is quite possibly just not up to the job.

SNP leader Sturgeon has floated the idea of the SNP, Labour, and Liberal Democrats banding together as a progressive bulwark against the Conservatives and UKIP. This would most certainly make an odd triumvirate as the SNP and LibDems are opposed to Brexit while Labour technically supports it. Labour has already vetoed Sturgeon’s idea and the Liberal Democrats have clearly stated they will not enter a coalition with Labour.

But the Liberal Democrats may once again be asked to make a fateful choice as they may be the party who will actually choose the next Prime Minister. Hopefully, they will remember their last disastrous choice to form a government with Cameron.

For Conservatives and Theresa May, the decision to call the snap election is looking like a disaster. There is still time to right the ship and they can perhaps once again hope that the polls are wrong like they were in 2015 and with Brexit. But it currently looks like the best result the Tories will get, assuming it is not a hung Parliament, is a majority that is actually smaller than what they had coming into the election. That result would be another indicator that, despite all her talk of being a “strong leader”, May herself is far from it and will have real difficulty getting a good deal for the UK in the Brexit negotiations where the EU has all the power.