Xenophobic Nationalist Wilders Slumps In Last Poll Before Netherlands Election

The next big test of the strength of far right nationalism seemingly sweeping the world will be in Netherlands tomorrow. There Geert Wilders, a racist and the leader of the far right nationalist Freedom Party, has been ahead in the polls in the lead-up to the election tomorrow.

But the last polls just came out and Wilders has relinquished his lead to the current Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Wilders and Rutte faced off in a debate on Monday night amid a diplomatic firestorm over a dispute with Turkey. That dispute revolved around the refusal of the Dutch government to let Turkish ministers into the Netherlands in order to campaign to give Turkish President Erdogan more power. Turks living in the Netherlands are eligible to vote in that Turkish referendum. Rutte’s government refused the ministers’ entry due to security concerns, as a large rally of Turks inside Netherlands would play into the hands of Wilders and the Freedom party.

But Rutte seems to have won the debate handily with snap polls showing that even 59% of Freedom Prty members conceding he outperformed Wilders. The poll shows that the Freedom Party will now win only 16 seats in the 150 member parliament, down from a projected high of 33 seats in December. Rutte’s Liberal party is now expected to win 30 seats. Obviously, any government formed will have to be a coalition government but the party with the most seats will have the first opportunity to form that governing coalition.

This is just one poll but it is the last one before the election and it confirms that Rutte has been gaining strength as election day nears. A defeat of Wilders would potentially be a firewall holding back the rage of xenophobic nationalism that has swept Europe and the globe. Combined with Le Pen’s poor polling in a potential French runoff and the failure of AfD to gain much traction in Germany, it could signal a return to sanity.

I’m purely speculating here but I do believe that Donald Trump’s shocking win here in the US and his willingness and even eagerness to abandon the Western alliance, including NATO and EU, along with his general incompetence has made some Europeans realize that these votes for far right nationalists are more serious than just a protest vote against the establishment and that there is more to governing than slogans that blame immigrants and foreigners for the current economic woes. Trump has, in effect, woken Europe up.

Let’s hope I am right – we will find out tomorrow.