Winners, Losers, And Big Losers In Failure Of Trumpcare

Let’s just give a quick rundown of the winners, losers, and the really big losers in the fallout of the failure of Trumpcare.

Biggest Loser – Donald Trump. He was the outsider who was going to come in and shake up Washington and get things done. And one of his biggest campaign promises and his first big legislative action ended in failure. Worse, it was sabotaged by his own party. He was the self-proclaimed guy who could “close the deal” and make things happen. He didn’t. In addition, he presented the Republicans with a real threat, demanding that they vote up or down on Trumpcare. He called off negotiations and told House Republicans he would hold them accountable for not giving him a “win”. In the end, he backed off that threat and agreed to pull the bill and not have the vote, essentially caving in entirely. Now, Republicans, Democrats, and other foreign leaders know that he is a bluffer. And now he is even asking for Democrats to come forward to help craft a new health care bill. That does not bode well for his arm-twisting and deal-making abilities in the future. This loss just makes Trump even weaker and threatens his ability to move on other parts of his agenda.

Biggest Loser – Paul Ryan. This was Paul Ryan’s bill and he could not push it through his own caucus. And Trump, Bannon, and their surrogates will be putting the blame squarely on Ryan. Whether it is true or not, Ryan is being blamed for convincing Trump to lead with healthcare which has turned into a fiasco. Once again, he was not able to provide the leadership needed to unite the Republican caucus, which already has severe doubts about his Speakership. In addition, this will hopefully end his unearned reputation as a policy wonk. With a totally free hand and the knowledge that Republicans had total control of Congress and the presidency, he managed to craft a bill that garnered support of just 17% of the people, created more uninsured than simply repealing Obamacare, and ended up doing nothing for deficit reduction. He managed to craft a bill that alienated both the conservative wing and moderate members of his own party. And he had seven years to prepare this bill. I addition, the one healthcare reform that might have been within easier reach for the GOP was to block grant Medicaid and now that is certainly off the table for the foreseeable future.  It takes a real talent to do that.

Loser – The Republican agenda. A failure of this magnitude may jeopardize the rest of the GOP agenda. Trump has announced that the next step will be to go for tax reform but, while they may not be as great as with health care, the divisions within the Republican caucus will still exist on that front. With a weakened President and House Speaker, leadership to move the agenda forward may be less effective and somewhat lacking. And it is hard to measure how much support the party has lost within its own rank and file. The hard line conservatives will be furious that the ACA will not be repealed. Moderates will be furious at how cruel and tone-deaf Trumpcare was. And no one likes a loser.

Pence and Priebus – Pence and Priebus apparently agreed with Ryan on pushing the idea to go with healthcare first. That turned out to be a disastrous calculation.

Loser – The Republican Party. Most Republican legislators ran for seven years on repealing the ACA and only lately added replacing as an option. They promised that if they won power, repealing Obamacare would be the day one accomplishment. Having gained that power, the GOP could not even get this bill through the House. It remains to be seen how badly this will hurt the Republicans with their base.

Winner – The millions of Americans who will not lose their health insurance.

The Resistance – The fully energized resistance and the outpouring of constant and relentless resistance to the Obamacare repeal has shown how effective it can be. Hopefully, the people who became engaged in the last few months will continue to stay energized and focused because there will be plenty of other fights ahead. But the power of the people who swayed their representatives against this bill can not be overstated.

Nancy Pelosi – Once again, although it was far easier than normal for her, she kept her caucus unified and did a masterful job of letting the GOP hang itself with its own rope.

Mitch McConnell – McConnell was awfully quiet as Ryan struggled to pass the bill. He did nothing to help Ryan such as saying there might be changes the Senate would be willing to accept or even forcefully supporting the bill. As Ryan’s star fades, McConnell will be the legislative voice that will be heard in the White House going forward.

Steve Bannon – As Pence and Priebus get blamed along with Ryan for the fateful decision to lead with healthcare, Bannon will gain even more influence.

Obama and Democrats – The ACA will survive for the time being relatively intact. Obama and Democrats paid a heavy price for passing Obamacare but, as Nancy Pelosi said, they passed the bill so that the American people would know what was in it. And when they found out, the people turned out to actually like what was in it. Sure there are issues that need tweaking but the people like the protections they have and do not want to lose them.

Feel free to add others that I might have missed.