Delay Of Trumpcare Vote A Big Blow For Ryan And Trump

Republicans may still pass the AHCA bill out of the House at some point but the damage is, in many ways, already done. Even if Trump and Ryan manage to put something together that will get the votes of both the Freedom Caucus, which is hell-bent on total ACA repeal, and moderates who know they will be punished if the bill, even in its present form and without the draconian measures the Freedom Caucus demands, passes, there is no way the resulting bill will go anywhere in the Senate.

In fact, the longer it takes the GOP to hash out a bill in the House that will go nowhere in the Senate, the longer it delays other aspects of the Republican agenda from getting worked on. With that knowledge and the withdrawal of the vote tonight, the pressure to simply move on to other issues will start to grow. Starting again from scratch or even in the Senate will chew up another month of legislative time at minimum. Before they could complete the job, insurers will have to decide whether or not they are going to participate in the exchanges next year and I’m sure they are interested in a little more certainty for next year rather than being in the middle of another GOP run at repeal and replace. Certainly, Mitch McConnell seems to feel it is time to move on.

This is also a big defeat for Paul Ryan. The idea to tackle repeal and replace right out of the gate was at Ryan’s insistence and this bill was his baby. The fact that he not only could not get this over the line at all or with even a reasonable shot at passage in the Senate means that the blame for this collapse will probably be lain at his feet. Ryan already has enough problems herding the cats that are the House Republican caucus and this failure will make that job even more difficult. Right now, neither the moderates or the conservatives have any fear of Ryan and sometimes that is what a Speaker needs to get things done. He is also hamstrung by the fact that a majority of his caucus has never been in a position where the votes they take will actually become law and the fact is this responsibility may petrify them, especially when they are asked to give Ryan and Trump a win by voting for a bill that is tremendously unpopular.

Lastly, this is a huge defeat for Trump. His voters largely put him in office because he was an outsider who was going to get things done. In his first big test, he was not able to “close the deal”, to use his own words. Combine that with the Russian allegations and his continual inability to not only tell the truth but admit when he is wrong, and it would be no wonder some of his supporters will begin to question his ability to get things done. His problems with Congress may be even worse, as it is clear that no Republican in the House went into those meetings with Trump with any real fear that he would make them pay a price for not voting for the bill. Moreover, Republican representatives were negotiating policy differences but it was clear that Trump did not have enough understanding of the policy details to make those negotiations fruitful. Instead, Trump was engaged in a political negotiation, saying that Republicans needed to give him a “win” and, in doing so, would be winners themselves. But Trump will not be the one who has to defend this terrible bill next year. And, even though he was making a political argument, it was also clear that Trump did not have enough details to even make a persuasive political argument to individual members. LBJ, the master at arm-twisting, knew all the power points in each member’s district and was able to use that knowledge to horse trade. Trump does not command such detail and clearly has no interest to do so. Congressional Republicans know Trump will sign virtually whatever they put in front of him, but they now realize that he will be very little help in crafting legislation or bridging the divide between the warring factions within the party. And Trump is finding out that legislating is not like real estate. When the deal or the market goes south, he can usually leave the hotel half-built and look to find someone to bail out his investment. In politics, you just lose and the failure of the bill remains as a reminder of that loss. I’m pretty sure Trump will not be happy when this realization hits home.