Oligarchy In Trump's Cabinet Won't Stop Rise Of Renewable Energies
I’ve written many times about my belief that the changing demographics will soon put the Republican party into a minority status for the foreseeable future. I know that seems hard to believe today. But it is also what makes the current GOP so extreme and the current situation so dangerous. In the same way, Trump’s cabinet also reflects another group that will also be fighting off greater irrelevance – the fossil fuel industry.
In 2016, for the first time ever, solar and wind energy is now cheaper than coal and is responsible for most of the new power generation created in the US and globally over the last couple of years. The price of solar, especially, keeps on dropping exponentially. Every time the capacity of solar power doubles, the costs drop 25%. By the middle of the next decade, solar power will become the cheapest option for energy globally.
In spite of this unstoppable trend, the Trump administration is geared up to do the bidding of the oil and coal industry. With Rex Tillerson from Exxon leading the way to help Russia drill more oil and evade sanctions to Scott Pruitt at the EPA letting the oil and coal companies foul our air and water to the GOP Congress opening up federal lands to oil, coal, and gas degradation, the Trump administration is clearly looking backward rather than forward. And if Trump imposes tariffs on Chinese products, that will spike the cost of solar panels here in the US, dampening the growth of solar deployments here in the US. That, of course, is music to the ears of oil, coal, and power generation companies. It is an open question whether that would boost the production of panels here in the US, but it would certainly increase their price.
In the US, the coal industry is terminally ill and will effectively be killed off by the sinking cost of renewables. In just the past year, jobs in the coal mining industry dropped by over 15% and the industry now employs only a little over 50,000 workers.
Meanwhile, China is continuing its enormous investments in renewable energy. The Chinese plan to invest over $350 billion in renewables in just the next four years, targeting half of the new energy produced in the country over those for years to come from renewables. In 2015, the US only invested about $44 billion in renewables while China invested nearly $150 billion. We have long ago lost the lead in solar panels to the Chinese, basically through lack of will power and support for the industry. And we already trail them again in the implementation of that technology as their country has become the leading solar power generator in the world.
This doesn’t mean that oil, gas, and even coal will no longer be huge industries worldwide. Even in China, the remaining 50% of power that is not renewable will probably be fueled by coal. But the fossil fuel industry will be far less significant than it once was. And, like the Republican minority, that does not mean it can not still wield enormous power. But they are clearly shrinking industries and their dominance in the Trump cabinet will just allow them to continue to be protected, rather than challenged.
It is funny that the party that constantly rages about letting the free market rule is now openly supporting clearly protectionist measures for these industries. The oil and gas companies will continue to be hugely subsidized and protected from the social costs of their product. And, sure, Trump will bring those coal jobs back, even though they are clearly gone forever. But intellectual consistency has never been a GOP strongpoint – just look at their position on deficits.
The ten largest oil producing countries in the world are Russia, Saudi Arabia, US, Iraq, China, Canada, Iran, UAE, Kuwait, and Venezuela. Of those ten, only the US and Canada could be considered liberal democracies these days. Of course, much of that has to do with both geography and history. But when you look at Trump’s cabinet, it is hard not to say that it is not that much different from the oligarchy in Russia. And, like all oligarchies, they are only interested in protecting and exploiting their monopoly power. They have no interest in preparing for the future, only maximizing returns in the present. And that pretty much sums up the Trump mentality and what we will have to endure for what is hopefully only four years.