A Congenital Liar Makes A Dangerous Diplomat
Trump’s diplomatic faux-pas with Taiwan is either a tremendous blunder or an extreme provocation to China. The fact of the matter is no one has a clue which one it really is, which means China will be forced to assume the worst and interpret it in the most negative light possible. It is anyone’s guess whether Trump initiated this conversation with Tsai Ying-wen, the President of Taiwan, to discuss the hotels he hoped to build there, whether this was purely a blunder by his transition team, whether an unwitting Trump was duped into it by John Bolton and other China hawks around him, or whether Trump has signed off on a strategy of confrontation with China. Take your pick of those four options.
Even more distressing is that Trump then lied about what actually happened, tweeting, “The President of Taiwan CALLED ME today to wish me congratulations on winning the Presidency. Thank you!”. The Taiwanese insist that the call was arranged by the Trump transition team.
A similar thing happened on Trump’s call to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif where, according to the Pakistani transcript of the call, Trump declared, “I am ready and willing to play any role that you want me to play to address and find solutions to the outstanding problems.” India was immediately outraged by Trump’s effusive praise for Pakistan and Sharif on the call but the quoted sentence above played directly into their fears about the never-ending battle over Kashmir. And, just like China, India has interpreted Trump’s comments as a change in US policy. The Trump campaign has refused to release transcripts of these calls with world leaders and there are valid reasons for not doing so. The summary release describing Trump’s call with Sharif merely says that Trump and Sharif “had a productive conversation about how the United States and Pakistan will have a strong working relationship in the future. President-elect Trump also noted that he is looking forward to a lasting and strong personal relationship with Prime Minister Sharif.” That anodyne description certainly is at odds with the Pakistani transcript and signals no policy shift at all.
This is the crux of the problem for foreign policy going forward. Trump’s penchant for brazen lies will invariably create constant diplomatic chaos. Of course, there is the obvious problem that our allies will find it more difficult to work with us because they have no faith in Trump. You might remember the story from the campaign that Trump’s lawyers always had to meet with him in pairs because of Trump’s habit of lying or having issues with his memory of certain conversations. Any private conversation between Trump and a foreign leader will have the potential for “misinterpretation”. And, when Trump denies what he said in those conversations, will whatever staff who may have been there to monitor the conversation be willing to stand up and accuse Trump of lying or backtracking? Further, there is nothing to stop foreign leaders from exploiting Trump’s habit of lying. They could simply say that they spoke to Trump and he fully supported whatever policy that foreign leader was trying to implement. Is anyone in the international community going to believe Trump when he claims that he never said such a thing?
Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy tweeted yesterday after the Taiwan debacle that “It’s probably time we get a Secretary of State nominee on board. Preferably w experience. Like, really really soon.” That would certainly help. Even some Trump supporters are pleading for a sane voice like Mitt Romney for that post. Others seem to think we can rely on foreign governments to ignore what Trumps says and simply focus on what US policy really is. That might be easier said than done and it puts a lot of faith in foreign leaders. In the end, Trump is still the President and his narcissism feeds on the fact that he can just pick up the phone and talk to all these foreign heads of state. He’s not going to stop or let diplomatic niceties get in the way of his “management style”. Having a competent Secretary of State can only hope to mitigate the problem.
Trump is not yet President and he has disrupted three important diplomatic relationships – with Cuba, India, and China. Don’t expect things to get much better when he does become President.