Did Obama's Decisions On Mortgage Relief And Prosecuting Wall Street Spell Doom For Hillary

Steve Schale, the guru on elections in Florida, has written his post-mortem on what happened in that state on election night. In contrast to the early post-election analysis, it seems Clinton’s problem was not so much that she did not bring the Obama coalition to the polls. It was more that Trump was able to overperform with his base. And, as usual, the Florida election came down to who won the I-4 corridor, the area between Tampa and Orlando. According to Schale, “In Florida, the basic rule winning is managing margins, particularly in suburban and exurban I-4. In 04, Bush did it and won. In 08 and 12, Obama won that battle. In 16, Trump did.”

Scott Lemieux over at Lawyers, Guns, and Money has an interesting theory on why moderate Republicans in the I-4 corridor simply held their noses and voted for Trump. He says, “[G]iven that the Orlando and Tampa suburbs and exurbs won Florida for Trump, I wonder if Obama’s failure to provide substantial relief for people with foreclosed houses and failure to punish the malefactors had an important effect.”

I think it will become more apparent over time that Obama’s failure to provide mortgage relief for regular homeowners while at the same time bailing out the big banks and refusing to prosecute any Wall Street executives may have been the actual decisive points in Hillary Clinton’s defeat. Yes, it appears that the appeal to white nationalism, sexism, and xenophobia may have helped drive some turnout for Trump. But Clinton’s inability to capture the wealthier and educated suburban white voters may have been driven by decisions Obama made that were beyond her control. And, of course, we should never forget James Comey.