Paul Ryan's Run As Speaker May Be Nearing Its End

At a Trump campaign rally in Wisconsin, his supporters chanted “Paul Ryan sucks” in a display of anger at the Republican establishment and a reflection of the dissolution of the years of remarkable unanimity within the Republican party. Kevin Drum wrote an article the other day basically saying that, if Republicans hold the House, the future of the next four years will be in Paul Ryan’s hands. I’m guessing Drum still has some belief that Ryan is a pragmatic conservative who will be willing to make deals. I am less convinced of that view. But I doubt that Ryan will hold the key to the next four years anyway. The chances that he will retain his leadership of the House Republican caucus are probably pretty slim and that assumes he even bothers to run again for that position. I have always believed that Ryan has his sights on the presidency and, in the probable post-election GOP civil war, it may be easier to do that when he is simply a legislator rather than trying to mediate the war in the Republican House. According to one Republican House member, “If we lose 15, it’ll be tough for Paul Ryan, especially if we do an omnibus in December.” Meaning that if the GOP loses 15 seats in the November election and Ryan agrees to an omnibus spending bill to keep the government open during the lame duck session of Congress, his chances of retaining his post as Speaker are pretty slim. In addition, even if the GOP retains control of the House, their majority will be greatly reduced. In 2014, there were over 30 members who objected to Ryan’s leadership but ended up with Ryan because they could not agree on alternative. Most of those members will be back, having won re-election in safe Republican districts, and they will only be concerned about a challenge from their right. That will limit the next Speaker’s ability to make any deals with the Clinton administration. And Trump will be openly be blaming Ryan and the establishment for their lack of support in his defeat. Trump’s campaign CEO, Steve Bannon, has made no secret of his wish to destroy Ryan. If Ryan ran for re-election as Speaker and lost, his standing with the media and within the GOP would be shot. For him, discretion may be the better part of valor. By abandoning his role as Speaker, Ryan can lay low while the civil war within the GOP shakes out. In a few years, he can re-emerge to lead what’s left of the Republican party and lay the groundwork for his presidential run.