May Vision For Brexit Defies Reality As EU Will Determine Terms Of Separation

Over the weekend, Theresa May took the occasion of the Conservative Party Congress to finally announce her intentions about proceeding with Brexit. And she made it clear as day that she would be pushing for a clean and near total break with Europe. In addition to the usual and expected comments about “taking control of our borders”, there were also declarations about “making our own decisions about how we label food”, and that the European Court of Justice would have no power over British courts. She also promised to introduce a bill for the next session of Parliament that would repeal the European Communities Act, the law that took the country into the EU. Interestingly, the law would be passed next year but would not take effect until Britain formally leaves the EU. All these statements by May point to the rejection of the single market and a Britain standing firmly on its own outside the EU.

May continually says she does not want to tip her hand in negotiations with the Europeans, which she expects to take about two years. But that is exactly what her comments at the Congress did. And then she went on the BBC and said Britain would invoke Article 50 sometime before March of 2017 and hoped preliminary talks could begin beforehand. So not only do the Europeans know May’s negotiating positions at this point, they also know her preferred timing as well. An indication of how the Europeans feel about negotiating with Britain and May came from Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, who summarily dismissed any preliminary negotiations with a tweet stating, “PM May’s declaration brings welcome clarity on start of Brexit talks. Once Article 50’s triggered, EU27 will engage to safeguard its interests.” And, despite what May believes, those interests do not line up with May’s goals at all. And when she does invoke Article 50, all the power and leverage in these negotiations shift to the Europeans – they will end up dictating the terms.

The idea that Britain can negotiate a break from the EU and manage to somehow reinstate trade deals with all 27 Euro members does defy belief. The trade issue is massive on its own. If May assumes that Britain can replicate the free flow of goods from Britain to the EU without tariffs that currently exists under the EU and do that in two years, she is sadly mistaken. That would require ratification of each of the 27 states and, in some countries, ratification of even local authorities. To get that deal completed and ratified in two years is fantasy. One option would be to leave the existing trade infrastructure in place until that deal could be ratified but it is doubtful the Europeans would currently agree to that and May has now lost pretty much all leverage to seek it. And if no deal can be struck, then Britain will have a host of issues to deal with regarding the World Trade Organization as their membership in that organization is currently contingent on the EU.

Needless to say, the pro-Brexit members of the Conservative Party just loved May’s speech and roared with approval. Sometimes I think that the pro-Brexit crowd lives in this bubble where they sincerely believe that Europe needs Britain more than Britain needs Europe. I doubt they will be cheering so loudly when they discover that is not true. May’s speech will speed the flight of the financial industry out of London (some may feel that is a good thing) as she has made it clear that a clean break with the EU is coming. The coming two years of uncertainty and the increasing isolation of Britain will be a severe drain on their economy. The probable loss of easy access to the country’s largest market will be another devastating blow to that same economy. And you have to wonder how Scotland, Northern Ireland, and even Gibraltar will react to May’s announced vision. When you realize what lies ahead for Britain, it is hard to understand why they are all cheering.