Down-Ballot Republicans Getting Very Nervous

Donald Trump’s disastrous debate performance, which was followed his continual self-inflicted wounds relating to his feud with former Miss Universe Alicia Machado as well as the continued focus on his taxes, could not have come at a worse time in the election for Republicans. Very often, especially when there is no incumbent running, the first debate sets the tone for race going forward. And with barely a month to go before the election, there is very little time to change the dynamic of the campaign. Trump will have another chance this Sunday when the second debate takes place in St. Louis.

Already, national polls are showing Clinton moving back to a six or seven point lead. And Trump’s poor showing is really putting pressure on down-ballot Republicans, especially those have chosen the approach of “supporting”‘ their nominee while specifically refusing to endorse Trump. So far, they have mostly managed to get away with this kind of waffling but it becomes harder to pull that off as the election draws closer. New Hampshire’s Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte found that out in a debate earlier this week where she was confronted with the question of whether Trump would be a good role model for children. Her response of “absolutely” was almost immediately retracted after the debate but it quickly became a campaign ad for her challenger Maggie Hassan. Even House Republicans are being challenged by ads that try to connect them to some of Trump’s outrageous statements, especially for those members who have said good things about Trump in the past.

The trend in the generic Congressional vote that is a broad measurement of congressional preferences show the Democratic lead intensifying in the aftermath of the first debate and the days that followed. The two most recent surveys show Democratic leads of 4 and 6 points. If that kind of lead continues or even grows, it could spell disaster for Republicans, perhaps even threatening their control of the House. It is generally conceded that an 8 point generic lead for Democrats would almost assuredly result in the House changing hands.

That makes the next debate even more critical for Trump and the Republicans. Second and third Presidential debates usually do not get as big an audience as the first, which makes it a little harder for the trailing candidate to make headway. Even if he has a good debate, there is a question of whether Trump can keep from going off the rails at some point between now and the election. But another disastrous performance like the first debate will probably seal Trump’s fate. Either of those would put even more pressure on down-ballot Republicans. At this point, it would be very difficult for Republicans to run away from Trump without looking like just total opportunists and weasels. The Republican base does not kind kindly to “showing weakness” which is what a repudiation of Trump would mean. And those in tight re-election races can not afford to alienate that base of Trump supporters as they will need every Republican vote they can get.

So Republicans will be watching Sunday night’s debate with some trepidation. But even a good showing by Trump will hardly allow them to relax until election day as they can never be sure that they won’t wake up some morning to another Trump disaster. Democrats, on the other hand, will be hoping for another strong performance from Hillary Clinton that will just increase the pressure on down ballot Republicans.