Could Democratic Control Of House Actually Keep GOP From Breaking Apart

I’ve already written about the coming split between conservatives and the alt-right, white nationalists within the Republican party. And I’ve also stated that, even if the Republicans hold the House, Paul Ryan will not retain his post as Speaker of the House in the next Congress, whether he wants the job or not. Martin Longman over at Washington Monthly spins an interesting theory of how the GOP will split apart if they manage to retain the House with a much slimmer majority. His idea is that the Freedom Caucus will never allow Ryan to stay as Speaker but, just as happened two years ago, they will also not be able to agree on exactly who should replace him. Even if the GOP could agree on a new Speaker, they will never be able to pass appropriation bills that Clinton will sign and will eventually run up against the debt ceiling again. And, in order not to default on the national debt, “sane” Republican House members will agree to raise the debt ceiling with help from Democrats. And, just as happened to Boehner, that will be the end for whomever the new Speaker would be. Into this leadership vacuum, Longman surmises, Nancy Pelosi can go to the remaining group of sane, moderate Republicans and agree to support a compromise Republican Speaker in exchange for a repeal of the Hastert rule that no legislation can move forward without the approval of the majority of the Republican caucus. In essence, the House would be run by a “governing coalition” of establishment Republicans and Democrats. And this would result of the splintering off of the Freedom Caucus and the formation of a Trumpian alt-right, white nationalist party which would actually be larger than the establishment Republican party.

It is an interesting theory and it seems perfectly conceivable. But I would like to look at the flip side which would be the scenario if Democrats actually win the House and control the Senate. Hopefully Democrats will realized they only have a two-year window to get anything they want done accomplished. The 2018 election in the Senate will be difficult and Democrats will probably lose some marginal House seats and the majority. For Republicans, every member of the House will be paralyzed by the fear of an attack from the right. They will do everything in their power to obstruct Clinton and the Democrats, both in the House and the Senate. And they will be united in that obstruction. And every Democratic accomplishment will actually force even more condemnation from Republicans. So, rather than splintering apart, the Clinton presidency and their own minority status will actually works as a force to keep the GOP united. What happens after 2018 may be a different story, but, for the next two years, the GOP will be totally united in their opposition to the Clinton agenda, perhaps delaying the inevitable day of reckoning for the Republican party.