Angela's Ashes

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her center-right CDU party suffered a humiliating defeat in the regional elections where Merkel herself holds her parliamentary seat.  The center-left Social Democrats (SDP), the dominant party in the rural Mecklenburg-Vorpommern region but the junior partner in Merkel’s governing coalition, took 30% of the vote, while the CDU fell to third place with only 19%. The “winning” party was the recently formed anti-immigrant AfD party which came in second with 20%. AfD took votes from both the SDP and CDU in building their shocking total. Merkel’s immigration policies are driving voters away from both parties in the governing coalition and it is becoming increasingly difficult for Merkel to lead. In addition, Merkel still has not announced whether she will run for a fourth term as Chancellor in next year’s elections. Current polls show the electorate is split on whether she should seek a fourth term but there is clearly anger in the electorate about Merkel’s immigration policies. This election will make her decision even more difficult.

Merkel has always been an extremely careful politician, making sure she never got too far ahead of the German public. That is why her position on immigration for the refugees flocking into Europe from Syria and Iraq was so surprising and courageous. There was no clear mandate within the German public for allowing these refugees in and her policies would clearly create a political opening for the far right. But she did the morally courageous thing and she is still at least publicly sticking to her policy, even though immigration has been substantially reduced in the past year. But she has suffered an enormous political cost and seen the rise of AfD as a new power in German politics. Merkel’s domestic problems will also distract her from focusing on the problems in Europe, from the anemic economy to Brexit. And, if she decides not to run for re-election, there is no clear successor in either the CDU or the SDP, providing an even greater opportunity for the AfD.  Without strong German leadership, it is difficult to see how any of Europe’s problems will be effectively addressed.

It is admirable to see that Merkel has finally been willing to expend some political capital in pursuit of a larger, more honorable goal, in this case, a sympathetic policy toward war refugees. What is so sad is that she did not spend that capital on behalf of those southern European countries like Greece, Spain, and Portugal in helping them recover from the financial crisis. Whether that is because she did not want to take on the German banks who would have been force to take a haircut on their loans or because she truly believes that they “need to be taught a lesson”, even though in the case of Spain and Portugal their borrowing had not been excessive, is only for her to know. But perhaps showing a little more courage in order to salvage those countries’ economies would have mitigated the rise of the far right that humiliated her in her home region.