Trump May Be Paul Ryan's Undoing

Donald Trump may end up becoming Paul Ryan’s undoing, despite Ryan’s continued backing of Trump. A remote possibility would be that a landslide loss for Trump would also lead to the Republicans also losing the House. But that might actually be the best result for Ryan’s political future. The more likely result is that Democrats win the Senate and make significant gains in the House but still leave Republicans in control. Unfortunately for Ryan, those gains that Democrats make in the House will be at the expense of “moderate” Republicans, which will only strengthen the hand of the extreme ideologues in the Freedom Caucus. In fact, one reason fro Ryan’s continued support of Trump is primarily to keep those ideologues at bay. In addition, Ryan will also have to work with Democrats in the Senate in order to get any kind of legislation passed. The balancing act required to work with Senate Democrats while keeping the Freedom Caucus happy is probably beyond the capabilities of anyone, even a Cirque du Soleil performer. In fact, Republican hard-liners are already planning to obstruct a Clinton Presidency in much the same manner they have spent the last eight years obstructing Obama. But, without control of the Senate, all that will remain will be endless House committee investigations, something that really will not help Ryan build his 2020 presidential resume. But Ryan may have even more to fear from his own Republican caucus. Already there is talk within the Freedom Caucus of trying to ensure that Ryan does not retain his position as Speaker of the House on the first ballot next winter. This revolt against Ryan knows that it won’t actually succeed. It is more focused on weakening Ryan and forcing him to accept changes in the rules and leadership that will give even more power to the Freedom Caucus. That would leave Ryan in the worst position possible, a pariah among conservatives and without any way to move forward the Ryan agenda that he desperately needs for his next presidential run.