Ryan Tries To Walk Tightrope To 2020 Nomination

The polls keep on slipping away for the Trump campaign and other down-ballot races are also starting to look a little grim for Republicans. Polls in Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and, in today’s shocker, Georgia show Clinton with significant leads in what today looks like an electoral map wipeout for Trump. More importantly, Republican Senators in Illinois and Wisconsin are in serious trouble, Evan Bayh’s entry into Indiana Senate race provides another opportunity for a Democratic pickup. In Pennsylvania, Republican Pat Toomey is in a tight race with his Democratic challenger Katie McGinty. And the most recent poll in New Hampshire shows Republican Kelly Ayotte getting crushed by Democratic Maggie Hansen.

Yes, there is plenty of time for all these races to change in a big way before the November election. But we are now over one week away from the end of the DNC convention and all the polls show Republicans have a huge mountain to climb. And if Trump’s poll numbers do not improve, it is going to be tough for Republicans to get out the vote on election day, hurting their chances in state and local races even more.

So you really have to wonder why Paul Ryan continues to condemn Trump’s words but continues to support him. Hanging on to Trump as he goes down to a massive defeat, probably losing the Senate, and even possibly losing the House, would not make Ryan a popular guy with his fellow Republicans. I have no special insight into Ryan’s thinking but let’s take a couple of educated guesses about what his motivation might be. I guess I would start off with the assumption that Ryan desperately wants to become the Republican nominee in 2020. If Republicans lose the Senate but still maintain their grip on the House, then Ryan becomes the most powerful Republican left standing, providing a great position for him to set up his 2020 campaign.  In addition, he also probably knows that, with the changing demographics in this country, he will still need a lot of that core Republican group that supports Trump and the Tea Party. If he can walk this tightrope between condemning and supporting Trump, he can always point to the fact that he did not abandon Trump when he starts his 2020 campaign. This is a continuation of his rationale to take the thankless job of Speaker of the House to begin with. He knows that he needs the support of what the late Republican moderate Steve LaTourette called the 40 or so House members that “were not interested in governing” in order to pass Ryan’s unpopular economic agenda. And he will need the support of those same members and their supporters to make any headway in 2020.

Of course, Ryan still has not been able to corral those Tea Party House members and has failed to meet most of his legislative agenda so far in this session. Perhaps, he might also have a slightly freer hand if some of those Tea Party members go down to defeat in Republican primaries, as happened to Tim Huelskamp. And there is certainly plenty of time for Ryan to pull his support for Trump, especially if things still look horrendous for Trump and the Republicans as we get closer to election day. That is why he keeps on giving himself an out with comments like “an endorsement is not a blank check”.  On the other hand, he runs the risk of looking like he is just another pandering politician if he keeps this up too long. And the Republican base is not fond of those who pander as shown by Hannity’s latest outburst decrying Ryan’s insufficient support for Trump and conservative causes. But by far his greatest risk is that a massive Trump loss also sweeps Republicans out of control of the House and he loses his platform as Speaker. Right now, that seems like a risk Ryan seems willing to take.