GOP Weakness in California Gives Dems A Shot To Take House

Here’s another reason why the House of Representatives might actually be in play for Democrats this fall. In California, there is no gubernatorial election this year and, because only the top two vote getters in the open primary advance to the general election, the one Senate race will be a contest between two Democrats, causing nearly two-thirds of Republicans to say they won’t bother to cast a vote in that race.  In addition, Donald Trump is currently polling somewhere in the mid-30s in that state. So with no statewide race to interest Republicans and a Presidential race that is a foregone conclusion, Republicans only chance of their vote having any influence will be in House and local races. It is hard to imagine just how hard it will be for those local candidates to actually get out the Republican vote.

Warning signs were already there as Darrell Issa survived a surprisingly close primary challenge from a relatively unknown Democratic challenger. Issa’s hold on this seat in California’s 49th District was thought to be impregnable but Doug Applegate, a retired Marine colonel, lost by only 6,200 votes which equated to a 6 point loss. Even more telling was that Issa only received 51% of the vote, hardly a resounding vote of confidence.  Issa pointed to the high turnout of Democratic voters as part of the reason for his closer-than-expected margin of victory. But the same dynamic will probably be in play again in the general election which should keep even this supposedly safe Republican House seat in play. 

With the current weakness of the Republican party in California and the potential implosion of the Trump candidacy, it would not be surprising to see a number of shocking upsets of supposedly safe Republican House seats. Combine that with a large Clinton win across the country and it just might be possible for Democrats to re-take the House. Yes, it’s still a longshot but it is certainly not out of the realm of possibility.