Brexit Prediction

Well, we are just hours away from Britain’s vote on leaving the European Union and I guess as an uninformed blogger it is my duty to venture a prediction on the result.  Markets are clearly betting that the UK will stay while current polls suggest it is a virtual tie with a pretty high number of undecideds. My feeling is that those undecided voters have pretty much made up their mind to stay but just aren’t saying so. So I would say that the “remain” vote will win by a pretty significant margin, perhaps by 6% or 7%. This will be another black eye for British pollsters. It will also leave a weakened David Cameron and a divided Conservative party. And that is about the best result possible.